Winter snow outlook from a model that did well last winter

Last year saw just a brief brush of snow in some spots

Last year most people living in Metro Atlanta saw no snow and even the mountains saw very little as temperatures were were warmer than normal on average.

Of course most Southerners have ridiculous demands for winter with warmth most of the time and then snow in December preferably around Christmas then back to warm again lol smh.

Regardless of if you like snow or not it is really UNREALISTIC to expect it every winter or to expect much if we do get some.

Our long-term average annual snowfall is just 2 inches. And 2 inches is within the normal margin of error in forecasting so even if we’re predicting 1-2 inches on a given day, that means it could be 0 or 4. That’s just reality whether we like it or not.


I’ve posted several blogs already about La Nina and the coming winter. I you missed them you can read them here.here.

Let me show you this Model Blend of the UKMET and ECMWF models that did well last October in predicting our lack of snow last winter.

Here is what is showed for last winter:

Here is how things turned out last winter:

But what about THIS WINTER?

It AGAIN shows below-normal snowfall in our region, but as you can see not nearly as strongly, the signal is weaker:

So the model is suggesting closer to normal snowfall but still below-normal. The problem is NORMAL SNOWFALL for Atlanta in many if not most years is little or none.

The same model shows a profession of the MJO (large-scale rising or sinking air) during winter that favors MJO phases 2-5 for temperatures. That is mostly warmer than normal with the periodic colder than normal period:

MY final Winter Forecast will be issued by the start of December.

For daily updates follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.


Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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