Visible satellite image of Dorian 5pm Thursday above.

Since not a whole lot has changed in the data today from points I’ve covered in the past few blogs I will not repeat them here in order to cover a little new ground. Therefore read previous blogs if you have not already, I’ll just hit some highlights here before turning to some other Dorian stuff.

Bottom line: uncertainty remains abnormally high for when, where, or if Dorian will hit land and at what strength and size as well as to where it tracks after in the long term (7-10) days later.

It’s not impossible it stays off the Florida Coast by a little. Some Euro Ensemble data show eye still offshore in 5 days for example.

Model data shows a LARGE discrepancy in the future forward motion (speed) of Dorian once it gets near Florida. Hence the question does it turn North before or after Florida?

The FLOODING danger with the storm slowing down should NOT be overshadowed by too much attention to the max wind speeds and classification category!

Storm Surge flooding and inland flooding are key killers in tropical cyclones not the wind. If it moves as slowly as “proged” then tremendous prolonged storm surge and mainland flooding would be a real and underestimated danger.

SPAGHETTI STORM TRACKS (courtesy stormvista):

ESTIMATED RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON:

5-DAY ACCUMULATED RAIN ESTIMATE ENDING 8PM TUESDAY:

7-DAY ACCUMULATED RAIN ESTIMATE ENDING 8PM THURSDAY:

The latest ECMWF Ensemble output suggests that the odds of Dorian moving into the Gulf of Mexico are down while the odds of a course up the Florida peninsula or just offshore of Florida are rising. But NO scenario is off the table yet. The other Euro Ensemble trend over the past few cycles has been for a hit farther South in Florida and taking longer to get there than what the Hurricane Center is forecasting.

The folks at weathermodels have a good distillation of all this in the graphic below, pay attention to the key on the left for the Yellow, Orange, and Red Zones:

Population changes increase vulnerable population and structures, many have not experienced a strong storm or a big flood:

Do they have enough insurance and the right kind?

CSU hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach points out that no MAJOR hurricane has made landfall on the Florida East Coast North of Stuart, FL Martin County, (Red Marker on map) since 1851:

So if Dorian hits farther North it would be something NEW in the record books.

Climatologist Ryan Truchelut puts it this way:

Hurricanes usually hit Florida from a more Southerly angle.

Met Dominic Ramunni provides perspective from hurricane history, last Florida East Coast landfall by county:

For updates follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.