While temperatures have as forecast warmed from the deep freeze and will do so further this week, there is no sign of any “Indian Summer” weather locking into place for the foreseeable future, getting back to average temperatures or a tad above, briefly, is the best we can hope for at this point.
This week looks mostly dry.
With the Thanksgiving travel period coming up next week it is worth noting that the ensemble packages from the various numerical variants suggest an active split jet stream pattern that leans toward cooler than normal and potentially stormy in the long-range period East of the Rockies although it’s too soon for details.
The ECMWF ensemble suite is warmer and drier than the wetter and cooler GFS ensemble suite. The Canadian (not shown) is closer to the GFS.
Here is the probability of at least one inch of snow by the end of the month according to the GFS and ECMWF ensembles:
Something worth keeping an eye on going forward to December through March. Have you noticed how many of our wet weather systems were coastal huggers?
Since the drought started to ease off many of our rain makers have been low pressure systems traveling across the Gulf Coast states with a suppressed sub-tropical jet-stream (STJ) in a split-flow pattern with the polar jet up North.
Those “Miller A” type storms WHEN they occur with deep cold air IN WINTER bring our best chances for snow or ice.
Here are some schematics of a Miller A:
No two storms are ever alike.
WSI has an ENSO index and has related it to current Pacific sea-surface temperature patterns and those of the past (analogs):
For what it’s worth here is a composite of those winters December-March:
Things could get interesting the next 60 days and for the coming winter.
For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.