Still seeing the cooling trends from the SSW Event

Blocking pattern develops at high latitudes shifting jet stream

The vortex disruption over the North Pole-- Stratosphere first, troposphere second, continues to evolve and is projected to peak as this month ends, with the lag effect continuing to push the jet stream around into at least the first part of November. First blog on this was back on October 14th.

As the pieces on the weather chess board move around, the atmospheric river slamming the West Coast moves inland and East and the first Nor’Easter of the season takes shape for New England. This will play a roll in the coming cool down here.

Power outages will be likely in parts of the NE U.S. with the system from heavy rain and powerful wind gusts.

For us nothing too extreme and no freeze expected here but the chill will be the most noticeable of the autumn so far.

STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX WARMING OCT 31:

STRATOSPHERIC PV NOV 9:

FIRST NOR’EASTER OF THE SEASON:

GFS MODEL WIND GUST FORECAST NEW ENGLAND:

GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST RIDGE WEST TROUGH EAST:

GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

ECMWF ENSEMBLE 500MB FORECAST:

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECAST TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST TEMP DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE:

ECMWF WEEKLY NOVEMBER 500MB AND TEMP DEPARTURE FORECAST:

FORECAST SURFACE CHART MONDAY AFTERNOON:

FORECAST SURFACE CHART THURSDAY MORNING:

FORECAST SURFACE CHART HALLOWEEN:

Connect with me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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