Dry Spell Continues, Drought Conditions Developing in Georgia

What a difference a few months make!

August 2022 featured nearly 3 weeks of rainfall that added up to 6.79 inches of rain for the city of Atlanta.

And a few days of rain occurred in September, but it was few and far between -- and well below the average precipitation for September, which is 3.82 inches.

In fact, only 0.99″ of rain fell over the course of 12 days, and the final 10 days of the month featured no measurable rainfall.

The dry streak continues through October, with no rain in the forecast for another 5 to 10 days. October’s average monthly rainfall is 3.28 inches, and unless a series of rainmakers move through Atlanta for the second half of the month, October 2022 will also feature below average rainfall.

The extended dry spell means D0 Abnormally Dry drought conditions have returned to Metro Atlanta. In the northeast Georgia Mountains -- as well as the Wiregrass region of southwest Georgia -- D1 Moderate Drought conditions have returned.

Why so dry?

In the absence of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, the fall months are the drier months of the year for Metro Atlanta.

With Hurricane Ian moving so far east after its landfall in Florida, Metro Atlanta did not benefit from any rainfall from the tropical system.

In addition, the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) has been in a negative phase since mid-September.

Latest Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) trend

A Negative Pacific North American (-PNA) Pattern features the jet stream surging south over the Western United States, including the Four Corner States where New Mexico is observing well above average rainfall.

Who would think that for the next 5 days New Mexico would be the wettest place in the country? #NMwx pic.twitter.com/xD4ecfxny3
— Grant Tosterud (@granttosterudwx) October 5, 2022

The Jet then curves upwards, allowing a ridge to set up over the Southeast -- which translates to high pressure at the surface over the South. High pressure shuts down any chance of cloud development, let alone rain.

A potential cold front may bring the first chance of rain for the Southeast in four weeks in Mid-October, right as the PNA reverses into the positive phase. Below is the futurecast surface map for Thursday morning, October 13.