Active weather patterns bring rain, cooler temperatures to Metro Atlanta this week

Two rounds of active weather patterns will bring rain as well as cooler temperatures to Metro Atlanta this week.

Monday rain and storms courtesy of a cold front

The first round will take place Monday through Monday night, as a cold front sweeps through the eastern half of the United States.

This cold front will bring a 40 percent chance of rain to the Atlanta area, with the rain showers arriving in the northwest communities around 2pm and exiting the southeast communities around 7pm.

Despite the rain chances, the total precipitation will be quite low -- only a tenth of an inch at best, as the rain will move fairly quickly out of the region.

Ahead of the frontal boundary, afternoon highs will rise to near 79 degrees, but after the frontal passage, expect a quick temperature drop! Tuesday morning lows will dip to the mid 40s for suburbs, low 50s closer in town.


Cool and Dry on Tuesday and Wednesday

Take advantage of the sunshine on Tuesday and Wednesday! Bear in mind that temperatures will be quite chilly in the morning, with sunrise temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s through the middle of the week.

A northwest breeze will continue to usher in cool and dry air into Metro Atlanta, but another storm system will bring a brief “warm up” to the region Thursday.

Thursday rain and t-storms: 60% chance of rain, some storms potentially stronger to severe

I’m more concerned about Thursday, when the upper atmosphere dynamics are more favorable for severe weather/impactful weather. The SPC doesn’t have anything outlined for our area at this time for Thursday, but I’m anticipating stronger winds since a strong dip in the jet stream will be right over North Georgia (see image below).

The limiting factor for severe storms is instability (the “lift” within a thunderstorm that causes it to strengthen). The instability will be lacking as a thunderstorm complex develops along the Gulf Coast, which “robs” the instability available downstream in North Georgia.

The timing for Thursday will change as additional model data arrives, but right now, non-severe rain showers and thunderstorms would be an issue for metro Atlanta between Midnight Thursday through Thursday night.

Unfortunately, that dip in the jet stream will cut off and become a closed low through Friday and Saturday, keeping chilly, damp air over the metro Atlanta area and a chance of rain all in the forecast through Halloween Sunday.

Potential rainfall may add up to 1″ to 1.5″ through late Saturday evening.

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