ATLANTA — Even with record-breaking holiday shopping numbers, a local economist says many Georgia businesses are bracing for a difficult end to the year.

The National Retail Federation expects seasonal hiring to be down significantly compared to last year, a sign that companies are tightening their operations heading into 2026. Emory University business professor Tom Smith says many firms are being cautious with staffing.

He states, “I think that firms are already making some adjustments with respect to their workforce. We’re in a ‘no hire slightly no fire’ environment.”

Smith says rising prices and the impact of tariffs are taking a noticeable toll on Georgia retailers in the fourth quarter. He notes some companies have already made job cuts.

“We have seen some companies laying off a fair number of people. I think a lot of companies have already made some adjustments,” he states.

Despite those concerns, consumers continue to spend. Adobe Analytics reports shoppers spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up more than 9% from last year.

Smith says the mixed signals could shape how businesses approach next year. He states, “I think we’re going to have a little bit of a let down coming out of this quarter and some firms are going to be a little bit tentative about how they’re planning for the beginning of next year.”

He says relief could come if some tariffs are rolled back, whether through action from the White House or a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Overall, Smith says companies are trying to enter the new year from the strongest position possible, even as consumers keep spending at record levels.

WSB Radio’s Austin Eller contributed to this story.