Oh ho the mistletoe, repeating weather refrain

Medium-range models signal a “similar” weather pattern as now around Christmas

The models have been somewhat consistent in depicting yet another North to South jog in the jet stream flow with a deep mid-level (500mb) trough developing into the Southeast around Christmas eve or day, suggestive of another “Miller” system of some sort and another shot at another Nor’easter eventually around that time frame.

Note the similarities to the generalized North American flow pattern now (map #1) to that forecast by the models a week or so from now (map #2):

MODEL PREDICTED JET STREAM PATTERN CHRISTMAS EVE:

This is suggestive of another big system that could bring more heavy snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

The accompanying cold front swinging through our region would bring more rain followed by perhaps, the coldest air of the season so far with a good freeze down into middle Florida by the 26th and some snow for the Smoky Mountains around the holiday.

But of course that far out in the future it is not scientifically possible for any specifics on temp, precipitation, or timing. That should become more clear as we count down from 5 to zero days in advance.

Model projected EPO, PNA, AO/NAO are consistent with the pattern projected.

ECMWF MODEL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

ECMWF MODEL LIQUID PRECIPITATION:

At least it’s something interesting to monitor.

Rain, snow, dry or sunshine, either way I prefer my Thanksgiving and Christmas to at least be chilly enough to enjoy my fireplace. Unlike most years due to Covid I won’t be traveling home to Chicago where my odds are better.

Merry Christmas to all.

For daily weather info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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