Still does not look like a non-stop rain Sunday but rain is still likely at times, increasing coverage after sunrise.
A couple thunderstorms may mix in with showers during the day but most storms will wait until the end of the day and at night.
The “broad window” for thunderstorms is currently ESTIMATED to be 3pm Sunday to 7am Monday, within that window the highest threat for the worst storms is currently ESTIMATED to be 9pm Sunday to 5am Monday.
There will probably be widespread damaging storms but NOT everyone will get damage. A tornado is possible.
Check back for updates as I fine-tune the forecast as we move forward.
Rainfall amounts 1-2 inches on average with isolated higher totals possible.
As far as timing is concerned the timeframe is give or take a few hours on both start and stop times (as always).
UNCERTAINTY:
In yesterdays blog I listed some but not all the factors that could allow this to turn into mostly a “non-event”.
They still exist but there are ALWAYS alternative outcomes when you talk about the future because of the unknowns inherent in the future of anything.
Let me show you an example using the analogs that match what one model is showing for Sunday-Sunday night compared to what happened in the past with similar systems:
Out of 15 top matches from history only 2 were real bad for Atlanta, while 6-7 had nothing with the others were moderately rough.
However, two key points here: first it’s just one model, and second mother nature doesn’t care what happened in the past or what any model shows.
So it would be foolish to let our guard down even though there’s hope. If it ends up bad where you live you don’t care if it was fine in most of the area.
SO it would be foolish to plan on nothing happening when you can BE PREPARED if it does, better safe than sorry. Plan for the worst hope for the best.
As of now, even though it may be worse elsewhere the threat for all of Georgia including Metro Atlanta is real. SPC Risk Level 3/5.
PREPARE TODAY:
Know the difference between a WATCH and a WARNING and what to do if one is issued for your area.
KNOW where you live, knowledge of geography is important. It shocks me how many people can’t find their county or town on a blank map. smh.
Know your county and those nearby so you can recognize when storms are getting close to you:
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Historic perspective (climatology):
For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
SURFACE WEATHER CHARTS...
SUNDAY MORNING:
SUNDAY EVENING:
MONDAY AFTER SUNRISE:
