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Kirk Mellish Blog

    The first day of Autumn started with refreshing temperatures this morning thanks to dry air (dew points in the mid 50s) morning lows were mostly in the mid to upper-50s: Dry air cools quickly after dark but warms quickly during the day. The dry ground also helps to heat the air because less of the sun’s energy has to go into evaporation. Therefore, the soil heats more rapidly when it’s dry, giving that heat to the air. This is called a “positive feedback loop” and is why heat and drought often re-enforce each other and go together.  Don’t bother with the equinox EGG STANDING thing, that is an old myth. Scientific tests have shown there is no better chance of standing an egg up on the equinox as any other random day of the year.  This was researched as far back as 1947 and as recently as the 1980s and found to be untrue, but the old wives tale refuses to die. I guess not enough Americans read. So while it is the first day of Autumn mother nature is going in the other direction, something forecast since last week. Temperatures running 10 degrees or more above-average in the afternoons. But at least it is a DRY HEAT so we don’t have a heat index of 105 as would be the case in a July or August heat wave. None-the-less we could tie or break RECORD HIGHS Thursday/Friday. The record Thursday is 90 set in 1911 and 1986. The record Friday is 93 set in 1954.  Little or no rain the next 7-12 days at least with above-normal high temperatures the whole time bringing us into October. September is already in 2nd place for the hottest September on record behind only 1925!  This year will probably end up in first place since records began in 1878.  Since the start of the year we are tied for First Place with 2012: Some sources have predicted a delayed peak autumn leaf change due to warm overnight temperatures. But locally our lows at night have been bouncing around from above to normal or slightly below normal so it’s difficult to forecast max leaf color. As tree expert Rex Bastian points out: The dry weather and especially the daytime HEAT seems to be causing leafs on many trees this year to turn yellow or brown and fall off sooner than normal. The change seems to be starting 3-4 weeks earlier than normal. Below is a map of typical conditions on October 12th, it seems we’ve been here for at least a week now: The cause of the drought and heat is a mega sized and mega strong upper-level high pressure ridge in the jet stream centered over the Southeastern U.S. and blocking the storm track well to our North and West: 7-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL ESTIMATE: WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOK: ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE 4-6 WEEK AVERAGE: So October looks to average above-normal in temperatures and below-normal in rainfall for at least the first half, if not the whole month. It would probably take a tropical system of some kind to prevent that from happening.  One thing that is always in the back of my mind when we get extreme weather, the pendulum often swings so that many floods end in drought and many droughts often end in flood. It doesn’t HAVE to go that way and there’s no sign of it yet. But something to remember. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • Over the past 3+ weeks not only has it been abnormally hot but it has also been unusually dry with very few of the usual scattered pop up thunderstorms. August only had about 9 days with rain and none of it was widespread and most of it was not too heavy.  My home rain gauge picked up over one-inch last Saturday the 14th and there were a few stray thundershowers Monday and Tuesday in the area but much of the region has been bone dry so far this month. The MAP ABOVE shows the percent of normal precipitation the last 90 days revealing only a few pockets of normal rain shaded green.  The official rainfall deficit for Hartsfield airport is over 2 inches for the month and about 5 inches since January 1st.  The abnormal heat with the long streaks of 90s to 100 and only modest humidity has meant extra evaporation from plants and soils.  We’ve been mostly free of rain even when it was humid, and on top of that we’ve been mostly rain free even when it was cooler.  That pattern looks to continue the next 5-15 days unless we get some tropical system to come along our way.  Autumn officially arrives on Monday with the Fall equinox, but that’s when we start our next extended heat wave as highs in the 90s return! HOW WARM HAS IT BEEN? 79 days with a high of 90 or above this year compared to the average of just 37. The record is 90 set in 2002.  So far September is IN FIRST PLACE for the warmest on record in Atlanta! September is in FIRST PLACE for most highs of 95 or above. We are tied for 5th place for SUMMER (June-August) days of 95 or higher.  The past 6 months are the 2nd warmest on record in Atlanta! And year to date since January 1st we are also in 2nd place for the warmest year on record through Sept 18th.  DROUGHT MONITORING: 65% of Georgia is now involved in some level of drought. That’s an increase of 25% in one week. Areas in the state in moderate to severe drought is 22%. Drought now impacting over 5 million Georgia residents (5,069,204). Topsoil moisture was rated as 73% short to very short. AVERAGE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE THE LAST 120 DAYS: AVERAGE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE PAST 60 DAYS: The models suggest below-normal rain and above-normal temperatures will continue for an extended period... ECMWF MODEL TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL ESTIMATE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL NEXT 6-WEEKS: Remember that is the average of a 46 day period not every day or every week. The same for the CFSv2 model below which is cooler, but both models show below-normal rainfall. CFSv2 TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL ESTIMATE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL NEXT 6-WEEKS: Sure we’ve had our brief cold snaps in Winter and Spring but overall on average as the Weatherbell map below shows, the past 10-months have averaged warmer than normal in these parts while rain went from dry to wet to dry over the same period: The Canadian model for the next 6 weeks is not much different than the American and European global variants suggesting we may have to wait until November before we get any lasting period of below-normal temperatures.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • STOP yourself if you think a season months away can be predicted now. NOBODY knows right now. The truth is seasonal forecasting is still in its infancy. Even forecasts made just before a season starts are only a little bit better than a coin toss on average.  Both Farmers Almanacs have been evaluated independently as well at 50% or LESS.  This is also true of various old wives tales like wooly caterpillars, wasp nests, squirrel nests, fog in August, thunder in any month, and all the rest of the old folklore ideas, none have been tested as showing any reliable results.  I’ve been asked if this hot weather means a cold winter. The answer is no, it also does not mean a warm winter. Research does not find a useful correlation between Summer weather and winter weather. IF ONLY forecasting were that easy.  ALMANACS FOR THIS WINTER: They sort of agree on wet for the Southeast (although you can have soakers but end up drier than normal so thats vague). One says a mild winter and one says “brisk” lol. I normally associate brisk with bracing or chilly with a wind. So a mild or brisk winter which will be wet or at least have some of our usual soaking rains but unknown how many or how much. No snow except for Rabun County area. So there you have it, I don’t have to do any research now the verdict is in :) CLIMATE NORMAL OR AVERAGE YEARLY SNOWFALL:  When Atlanta averages only about 2 inches of snow per year over the course of history, it means most years have little or no snow. A handful of big snows skew the average. When you only get about 2 inches per year it’s easy for any given winter to be above OR below normal because the standard deviation is so small.  Peoples memories are short (recency bias) so if in recent years you get more ice and snow than usual people start to think it’s normal, but it IS NOT.  A mild winter with no snow is more typical in Atlanta. If you love snow and cold move North of Tennessee.  One of the weird things about last winter was that while we had an El Nino (+ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere behaved much of the time as if we had a La Nina (-ENSO). Right now the atmosphere continues to act with a La Nina flavor despite the Pacific being in a mostly neutral condition with some weak El Nino (warm waters) and some weak cooler than normal sea surface temperatures (La Nina) near the equator. Since the condition of ENSO is a major climate driver not knowing which way it will be in winter makes making a forecast even harder than normal right now. Hopefully, trends and models will come into better focus in the months ahead.  As of now it looks like the worst of winter East of the Mississippi River would come in the February-March period something common in the last 20 years.  TYPICAL EL NINO AND LA NINA WINTER PATTERNS: Unless or until which way ENSO goes (EL or LA or neither) becomes more clear we are forced to lean on much less solid methods to estimate the coming winter season.  CURRENT EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (TOP) AND DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE (BOTTOM): Right now I am looking at the behavior of summer weather, the low solar cycle, the hurricane season so far, and global ocean temperature patterns to come up with the following analog years: Here is the NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WINTER OUTLOOK: INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL BLEND: US AND CANADIAN MULTI-MODEL BLEND: So for winter NOAA currently says a mild winter with rain/snow having equal chances of above or below average. The international models show above-normal winter temperatures with slightly above normal precipitation.   The American and Canadian models also suggest a mild winter but with precipitation near normal to below-normal. The analogs go against all the models as of now showing below-normal temperatures with precipitation hovering near-normal. I have to lean towards a winter that has temperatures average near-normal to above-normal with precipitation near to below-normal. Either way this looks about right from August or September or anytime... As always a reminder that whether for a month or a three month period we are talking averages for the entire period not every day or every week.  But remember as I said at the start the models and analogs are NOT a forecast because it’s just way too soon for that. 
  • A weak cold front will approach Tuesday (map above) followed by a “wedge” pattern (CAD) with fair weather high pressure wedging down the lee of the Appalachian Mountains funneling in even drier air and helping to lower temperatures some with some clouds from the NE/E air flow as the week goes on (maps below). The chance of rain is not zero but it’s much lower than normal the next 7 days and most of us will stay dry with temperatures a little more Fall-like by the end of the week, especially at night with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs lowering to the low to mid 80s. 7-DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL ESTIMATE: ATLANTA NWS FORECAST DISCUSSION: PivotalWeather maps of precipitable moisture (total moisture content) LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: PRECIPITABLE (PWAT) MOISTURE FRIDAY: THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GO THE NEXT 10-16 DAYS: MY Exclusive 5-Day Forecast here.  Conflicting signals for the end of this month and for October, split between more heat and dryness or cooler and wetter.  OCTOBER ANALOGS TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL: For those of you new to following me “Analogs” are past years that match characteristics to current or recent conditions thus providing a template for possible future weather. (whats past is prologue) OCTOBER CFSv2 MODEL TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL: I favor near-normal temperatures to a little above for October on average (warm and cool spells alternate) with below-normal rainfall on average unless a tropical system hits.  For more follow me on Twitter @MelloishMeterWSB.
  • Above-map shows estimated rainfall next 3 days, more dry than wet for Metro Atlanta as for the most part our long dry spell continues: The extreme heat is expected to at least “back down” some this weekend before coming back somewhat next week. Plenty more 90+ days to come before September is done! But looking longer term, in 10-15 days or so, there are signs of an actual jet stream pattern change that may last a while as we replace mid and upper-level high pressure heat ridge with a trough and more of a Northwest to Southeast air flow bringing a change of air mass with it: JET STREAM NOW: JET STREAM LATE MONTH: AIR MASS CHANGE AS ABOVE-NORMAL SHIFTS WEST WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE: So if the global equations are right we will shift from our current East and Southern heat ridge to a ridge West and trough East pattern by the end of the month allowing a NW to SE jet stream pattern to bring in temperatures back down to normal or maybe even a little below average as we wind up September and go into October. There are signals that the Month of October should average closer to normal so extreme heat should be gone by then even if we get some warm spells. Unless we get hit by a tropical system the next 2-5 weeks rainfall looks below-normal on average despite a few scattered showers and storms the next 3-7 days, more dry than wet.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS as shown above. Tropical Storm Warnings issued in blue. As per my blog this morning AND THE ONE back on Monday the tropics were something to keep an eye on this week and sure enough here we go with the first of probably two or more threats.  We are at peak season right now.  Keep in mind since there is NOT yet a defined low pressure center the forecast track is likely to be less reliable than normal for now.  Also the system could well be around far longer than the 5 days shown in the NHC map above! Below is all of the tropical systems SO FAR this year, not counting the incipient ones we are monitoring currently: The MJO Phase 8-1 provides favorable conditions across the Atlantic and Caribbean into October with positive large-scale mass upper level divergence, i.e. rising air motions.  If the system near the Bahamas gets named Humberto it would be an earlier than average date for the seasons 8th storm, the average being September 20th.  Let me repeat, the future path AND intensity of this system are presently highly uncertain. To quote the National Hurricane Center experts: “more so than usual”.  Some statistical observations from Dr. Phil Klotzbach of CSU: On average about HALF of all Atlantic hurricane seasons have at least two hurricane landfalls on the U.S. lower 48. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The late season heat wave continues and drought is growing. Yes a heat wave this extreme is rare in September but certainly not unprecedented. We get 90s into October in some years, but what IS unusual is the length of the string of consecutive 90 days and having the hottest days of the summer come after July or August.  Having the hottest temperature of the summer come in September only happens 20% or LESS of the time. Yesterday we tied a 2010 record Wednesday at 96F.  Today we probably break a 119 year old record high of 94 when we reach a high of 96/97 late this afternoon.  Temps are expected to back down closer to 90 this weekend but 90-95 next week IF we don’t get any tropical moisture. This will be our 75th day with a high of 90 or higher this year. Last year the final 90 high of the year was on October 6th, the latest 90 on record is October 9th in 1941. The most 90 degree days in a year on record is 90 so we may make a run at it after another couple weeks of above-normal temperatures on average.  At least SOME increase in badly needed rain is expected gradually over the next 5 days as fronts approach from the Northwest and moisture increases from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico associated with tropical systems we are monitoring. IF one or more of those systems tracks just West of or across Georgia then obviously temps would be cooler and rain more widespread (too soon to tell as two tropical systems are just forming now). An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast is responsible for the hot dry conditions: What happens to that ridge will impact where any tropical storms or hurricanes will go. DROUGHT MONITOR: NHC 80% RED AND 40% ORANGE CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION: PAST WEATHER HISTORY THIS TIME OF YEAR: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITIES: Right now the spaghetti models are all over the place with the first system, with two clusters: one across the South tip of Florida and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the other up near the East Coast.  ESTIMATED 5-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • An upper level jet stream high pressure heat wave ridge worthy of mid-summer is providing our heat wave giving us abnormally hot weather for this time of year with record or near record levels before it backs down some. Meanwhile it’s peak tropical cyclone season (tropical storms and hurricanes) in the Atlantic and Caribbean so we need to watch as there are plenty of “seeds” out there from North Africa to the ocean waters the rest of this month not just the ones shown below. The gulf will have to be monitored given some weakness in the underbelly of the high pressure ridge and then a reforming of the ridge over the Great Smokies and then Bermuda positions. So one area to watch will be from the Bahamas West through Florida to Texas. Indicators for October are for temperatures to average near-normal to a little above-normal. Rainfall is expected to average below-normal the next 6 weeks absent any tropical systems that can’t be foreseen at this time. There continues to be some support for November to change to below-normal temperatures. ENSEMBLES: The air conditioning bill and watering bill remain higher than normal longer than normal with the heat coinciding with a long dry spell for growing drought. The average number of 90 days for Atlanta in a year is 37, 90 is the record number. Sept 9th marks our 72nd 90 or higher day of 2019 with more to come the rest of the week. The record high today is 100 in 1925 with upper 90s expected.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • Power outages, flooding rain, coastal storm surge and hurricane force wind gusts extending inland from South Carolina to Southeast Virginia tonight and Friday, as tropical storm warnings are extended to Easternmost Massachusetts. The eye of Dorian with winds gusting over 105 PH is passing South and East of Myrtle Beach, SC.    OVER 20 TORNADO REPORTS (RED) AS OF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OTHER WIND REPORTS BLUE: ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL MAX WIND PATH ENDING 8PM FRIDAY: MAX WIND PATH THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY: 3-HOUR RAIN ACCUMULATION INTERVALS MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 2PM SATURDAY: For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • Intense storm conditions are now into the coastal communities while the most severe conditions are kissing the coast. Landfall of the eye farther into the Coast of South and North Carolina can happen at anytime if the storm wobbles. Dorian continues to be a powerful hurricane despite the outlook for gradual weakening. Over 200,000 without power so far, tree damage and significant flooding. Conditions on the Georgia coast will keep improving today. The Georgia coast was spared the worst as expected with the most damage North of the Savannah River.  TORNADO WATCHES: Power maps will change rapidly in SC/NC today: NHC TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

News

  • A Missouri mom warned others not to leave aerosol cans in their vehicles after she said a can of dry shampoo exploded in her daughter's car, shooting through the sunroof and landing 50 feet away, according to multiple reports. >> Read more trending news  Christine Bader Debrecht took to Facebook last week after she said her daughter left an aerosol can of dry shampoo in the closed middle console of her car during hot weather in Missouri. She said the can exploded, shattering the vehicle's sunroof and flying into the air. 'It blew the console cover off of its hinges,' Debrecht wrote. 'I just want to remind you (and your kids) to heed those warnings on products you may be using. Please don't leave aerosol cans (and especially dry shampoo, as this seems to be an issue with some brands) in your car! I am so grateful that no one was hurt.' Debrecht told KSDK and  ABC News that her family first believed something fell from the sky after her husband noticed the damage done to the 2018 Honda Civic hatchback. 'We were shocked and bewildered. We had no idea what had happened,' she told ABC News. 'We couldn't believe it had done so much damage. We still can't believe it. She told KTVI she was grateful her 19-year-old daughter wasn't in the vehicle when the incident happened. 'Don't leave aerosol cans in your car,' she told told KSDK. 'It's not something we think about every day.
  • Four men are accused of abducting a Maine man at gunpoint, forcing him to strip naked, and then shooting at him as the man attempted to escape by running down a road, police said Monday, >> Read more trending news  Ajoung M. Malual, 22, of Westbrook, Maine, Mahdi B. Ali, 23, of Boston, Noh Y. Okubazghi, 20, of Boston, and Samson S. Samsom, 22, of Minneapolis, were charged with drug trafficking and may face other charges, the Cumberland County Sheriff's Office said in a news release. Each man is being held in lieu of $150,000 bond apiece, the Sheriff's Office said. Deputies said they received reports of gunshots fired at a naked man about 1:30 a.m. Monday, WMTW reported. When deputies located the 39-year-old Naples resident, he told them he was taken at gunpoint from his home and put into a trunk, the Sheriff's Office said in its news release. He told deputies he was taken to an area and told to strip naked, and at that point began running through the woods while he was being shot at, deputies said. The victim gave deputies a description of the vehicle, which was located in Windham and stopped by authorities, the Sheriff's Office said. The four men in the vehicle were detained and subsequently arrested, deputies said. The victim, who was wounded, was taken to an area hospital and is in stable condition, deputies said.
  • What was an exciting celebration for one Texas couple became the subject of criticism on Twitter. The New York Post reported Jonathan Joseph and Bridgette Joseph were at Capital of Texas Zoo in Cedar Creek, Texas, where they enlisted the help of Tank the hippo for their gender reveal. >> Read more trending news  Video was posted to the zoo's Facebook page, but not before going viral on Twitter, where Ana Breton, a filmmaker, posted a screen recording of a TikTok post of the gender reveal. 'I did it. I found the worst gender reveal,' she tweeted Saturday. Time reported that the video showed Tank chomping on a watermelon, which revealed a blue color, meaning the couple is expecting a boy. Criticisms soon followed. 'The whole reveal concept is just completely stupid to begin with, but I guess you can make it even dumber,' one person tweeted. 'That person's baby is not remotely important enough to feed a hippo 10 pounds of food coloring,' another person replied. On Sunday, Breton said she got in contact with Bridgette Joseph, although it's not clear if Bridgette Joseph reached out to Breton to respond or not. 'While I’m not a fan of gender reveals, it was not my intention to bring darkness to their special day,' Breton tweeted, which included a response from Bridgette Joseph. 'This was one of the happiest days of our lives,' Bridgette Joseph said, according to Breton's tweet. 'With the help of the zoo and the amazing Tank the hippo, we learned that we are having a baby boy. After many years of raising our beautiful young lady, we decided to try for another baby. It took some time and some extra money in fertility treatments, but we finally got pregnant!' Bridgette Joseph said she and her husband would have been happy to have another girl, but for them, it would have meant they 'would have had to keep tying for a boy.' Michael Hicks, the director of the zoo, told The Post the Jello-O was not harmful to Tank, despite what some said on social media. 'This is the same Jell-O people feed their kids. It's totally harmless,' zoo director Michael Hicks told the tabloid. Hicks said the hippo wasn't forced into the gender reveal. 'You can't make a hippo do anything. He weighs 4,000 pounds,' Hicks said. 'He enjoyed it as much as anybody else did.
  • Officials in an Iowa city said the U.S. Department of Transportation has asked the city manager to remove multi-colored sidewalks, according to KCCI. >> Read more trending news  Ames officials said they received a letter from the USDOT's Federal Highway Administration, explaining the crosswalk at Fifth Street and Douglas Avenue did not meet codes and requested its removal 'as soon as it is feasible,' the television station reported. The crosswalks, installed earlier this month, feature a minority-inclusive rainbow on Douglas Avenue, KCCI reported. The crosswalks on Fifth Street feature gender non-binary colors on the east crosswalk and pride transgender colors on the west crosswalk, the television station reported. Ames officials said the FHWA's Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices prohibits the use of anything but white paint in crosswalks, adding that colored crosswalks and multi-colored crosswalks were not allowed. Ames officials are contesting the request. “I note that the FHWA’s letter included a “request” -- not a demand -- for the City to remove the colored crosswalk markings,' Ames City Attorney Mark O. Lambert told KCCI. 'This is not a lawful order or demand by a federal agency, it is merely a request.”
  • While this is only the first part of the Golden Ray and the St. Simons Sound incident, there remains a lot of work to do, threats to the environment, hazards to the people and to the Port of Brunswick continue to be addressed through a unified command,' said U.S. Coast Guard Captain John Reed, Charleston sector Coast Guard commander.   While an ongoing review and investigation unfolds of a fire and the subsequent capsizing of the South Korean automobile transport tanker, the Golden Ray, off the Georgia coast, you can bet millions that the ship's owner, automobile manufacturer/shipper and insurer were all hoping that there were some very experienced hands at the wheel the night that this massive cargo ship fell over on its side.
  • Chicago police have captured a man suspected of nearly killing an officer over the weekend, three days after he is accused of shooting a 28-year-old woman in the back as he rode a bicycle near downtown. Michael Blackman, 45, was in critical condition Sunday after he was shot during an armed confrontation with police, authorities said Sunday. As of Monday morning, he had been charged with four counts of attempted murder, according to Anthony Guglielmi, chief communications officer for the Chicago Police Department. A news conference was slated for later Monday to provide more details, but a time had not been set.  Blackman was captured Saturday afternoon, several hours after he allegedly shot a 40-year-old police officer on Chicago’s South Side. Chicago Deputy Police Chief Brendan Deenihan said Blackman was caught after investigators who were canvassing the Englewood community, where the officer’s shooting took place, obtained surveillance footage that showed Blackman fleeing through a vacant lot several blocks away. The footage did not show him leave the lot. Detectives and patrol officers descended upon the area, Deenihan said. “When they went to go search that lot, this defendant popped up,” Deenihan said. “This is when the gun battle ensued between the defendant and the officers.” Blackman ran over some railroad tracks, where he encountered more officers. Additional shots were fired, and Blackman was struck multiple times. “He has eight holes in him at this time and a broken femur,” Deenihan said. Watch Deputy Police Chief Brendan Deenihan talk about the shooting and capture of Michael Blackman below.  Blackman was taken to Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn, the same hospital where the officer he is accused of shooting was rushed earlier that morning. No officers were injured in the second encounter with Blackman, Deenihan said. Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson said during a news conference Saturday that the 16-year veteran officer who was shot serves on the department’s fugitive apprehension team. The team, which was looking for Blackman in connection with Wednesday’s bicycle shooting, went shortly after 8:30 a.m. that morning to a home in the 1900 block of West 65th Street, where Blackman was believed to be hiding, Johnson said. >> Read more trending news  When members of the team knocked on the door, Blackman ran out the back of the house, where the injured officer and his partner were stationed, Johnson said. “At that time, a physical struggle ensued, followed by an armed confrontation,” Johnson said. The unnamed officer was shot in the groin and in the lower leg, doctors said. Fellow officers loaded him into a patrol car and rushed him to the hospital, where he underwent surgery. He was in stable condition Saturday afternoon. “It is reported that the injured officer had the self-awareness to apply his own tourniquet, as his partner maintained pressure on the gunshot wound on the way to the hospital,” the superintendent said. Guglielmi tweeted that the officer lost nearly a third of his blood volume. “He came basically bleeding to death,” trauma surgeon Dr. Jane Kayle Lee said during Saturday’s news conference. “He had already lost a significant amount of blood and was taken emergently to the operating room for surgery.” Lee said the officer had a hole in one of the largest veins in his leg. She was able to repair the injury. The surgeon said the bullet to the officer’s groin remains in his body. The gunshot to his leg was a “through-and-through” wound, with both an entrance and exit wound. The officer suffered significant fractures to his leg when that bullet tore through his body, Lee said. His leg was splinted for the time being, but he will need additional surgery. “I do expect that he will have a good recovery,” Lee said. Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who met with the man’s family at the hospital, said the shooting is a reminder of the sacrifice police officers make every day to protect the city’s residents. She also praised the work of the officer’s colleagues in the fugitive apprehension unit. “Their quick work saved this officer’s life,” Lightfoot said. She asked the public to pray for the officer’s full recovery. “I ask that all Chicagoans continue praying for the officer and his family throughout his recovery,” Lightfoot said at the news conference. “Also, keep all of our first responders in our thoughts and prayers because, as the superintendent said, and we see on a daily basis, they run to danger to protect us.” Like the officer, the woman Blackman is accused of shooting on Wednesday is expected to survive. According to The Chicago Tribune, the woman was headed to lunch with co-workers around noon in the city’s Fulton Market District when she was shot by a man on a bicycle. Watch police and city officials, along with medical personnel, speak below about the Saturday shooting of a Chicago police officer.  “Based on the information we have right now, the shooter passed by a group of individuals and went directly to her to extend his arm and fire one single gunshot,” Johnson said at the time, according to the Tribune. “Appears right now the victim may have been targeted by the offender.” As the gunman fled the scene, the woman was rushed to Northwestern Memorial Hospital in serious to critical condition, the newspaper said. Her condition was unknown Monday. Police officials released still images and video the day of the shooting that showed the alleged gunman riding his bicycle near the scene of the shooting. Guglielmi tweeted Friday that detectives had been given a tip to go to a bicycle shop, where they discovered security footage that showed a man fitting the description of the shooter getting his bike fixed about an hour before the woman was shot. The clearer images, which show a man later identified by police as Blackman, offer a full view of the man’s face as he stands at the counter. At one point, he takes off his black Nike baseball cap and wipes his head with paper towels. He is seen standing and chatting with the employee working on his bike and leaning on the counter, his wallet out, as he pays his bill. The man smiles several times as he talks to the worker. Blackman was identified as a suspect in Wednesday’s shooting based in part on the images from the bike shop, Johnson said. His motive in the woman's shooting was unknown as of Saturday. The superintendent declined to speculate on Blackman’s state of mind but pointed out that he was accused of shooting two people, including a police officer. “Obviously, this is not a person that should be walking the streets of Chicago,” Johnson said Saturday while Blackman was still at large. “He’s a dangerous individual. There’s no hiding that.” Blackman has an extensive criminal history dating back to 1991, Johnson said Saturday. His previous charges range from burglary and domestic battery to drug charges. He remained hospitalized in police custody Monday morning.