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Kirk Mellish Blog

    Temperatures will moderate from the big chill this weekend, but temperatures will still be cooler than normal for this time of year. However, the return of sun will lift spirits and make it more comfortable for your weekend plans. Christmas shopping? A movie? A certain football game? Drinking heavily and sobbing on the couch? It will be dry this weekend and most of next week looks dry as well with a warming trend back toward normal for this time of year by next Thursday.  That having been said there does not look to be much warm weather the rest of this month or to start next month, on average it will be on the cool side of normal.  It’s way too early for a specific Thanksgiving forecast but early indicators point to a modest rain chance on or near Turkey day with temperatures in the mid 50s for highs with lows in the low to mid 40s. The sub-tropical Southern branch of the jet stream has been active so far this autumn, and if that were to continue this winter it would raise the odds of snow or ice. Something to keep an eye on going forward. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • What’s a 30 degree temperature drop from one days high temperature to the same time the next day as shown above? (4pm Monday v 4pm Tuesday) Lyrics from the Gordon Lightfoot song the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald come to mind: “...when the gales of November come early...twas the witch of November come stealin...” MOST of the snow or sleet/freezing rain (very little) stays in the far North Georgia mountains.  If you see any sleet (ice pellets) or snow flurries North of Hartsfield this morning don’t panic it won’t last and it won’t matter. (Most of us wont see any). For Metro Atlanta the moisture moves out as the cold air moves in so not worried about any winter precip problems here as the rain ends. The wind and dry air moving in should dry off the pavement before temperatures drop below freezing in the Atlanta area with a hard freeze Wednesday morning as temperatures dip to the January-like 20s near record levels.  8AM MODEL RADAR SIMULATION: 10AM MODEL RADAR SIMULATION: NOON MODEL RADAR SIMULATION: MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES 10AM: NOON: 5PM TUESDAY: WEDNESDAY MORNING MODEL LOW TEMPERATURES: The air mass trajectories show the origin of the incoming air started out near the arctic: 75% of the country will have at least a freeze this week: LIVE updates on the changing weather conditions throughout Tuesday morning on 95.5 WSB Radio.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The incoming cold snap would be noteworthy in the dead of winter, so this polar plunge is remarkable for this early in the season. It is hardly unprecedented though so nothing we can’t handle. It is a fairly quick hit and run, in and out. We probably will not break any records locally, but places not far away probably will and lots of records will probably fall in the Midwest, Great Plains and Northeast states. But records will be possible all the way to the Gulf Coast West of here. Since this is dead of winter type polar air WINTERIZE YOUR HOME AND CAR/TRUCK. Turn-off water to the outside of the house and shut down decorative fountains. Temperatures will fall hard and fast after the cold front passes through bringing a decent shot of rain to much of Georgia late tonight into tomorrow morning before the temperature drop. Some brief sleet or snow possible mainly in the Georgia mountains early Tuesday. I’ve been warning you about this pattern change in blogs and on Twitter Since November 4th: It’s not just the actual air temperatures that are impressive but also the geographic coverage of the arctic air mass with only the far West and South Florida spared.  We’re keeping an eye on the tropospheric patterns that can lead to more polar vortex splits and sudden stratospheric warming events in the months ahead that can lead to more cold air invasions after a warm-up. A couple snow periods will come with it for the Midwest, New England and maybe even parts of the Mid-Atlantic states with flurries possible in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (not Atlanta), an inch or more of snow in parts of Tennessee and snow flakes should be seen “in the air” in areas adjacent to TN as well and as far South as Northern Louisiana.  For some areas of the country it could end up being one of the coldest ever November air masses this early in the month. And America will not be alone as much of Asia and parts of Europe will share it.  In ATLANTA during peak winter our normal high temperatures are in the 50s so this will be cold for any time of year with highs and lows below-normal and our first hard freeze coming early in many locales as the first official lows of 28 or lower is on average December 5th, a couple weeks earlier for the North suburbs.  This may naturally have you wondering if this means a cold December? Does this mean a cold winter? Short answer no, at least not necessarily by any means.  Research has shown there is SOME persistence of weather patterns from Fall to Winter and from November to December, but certainly not all the time.  I mentioned an early cold wave is not unprecedented.  Five years ago a similar big Southbound dip in the jet stream brought a big November chill: But December of that year very warm most of the country: What about last year? Did you already forget last November was colder than average?! Top 10 cold in many states just to our West and North. But the December that followed? Warm again.  In the past similar ENSO conditions/sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific with similar October weather as we have this year (left panels below) have lead to above-normal temperatures for much of the nation in October with cold out West like this year (right panels below): See the Decembers that followed like conditions in the past: Even without an official El Nino an El Nino-like base state of the background atmosphere response has revealed a tendency in the modern era where even in winters that end up being cold that December is biased above-normal and we’ve seen this in 2014, 2015, 2018. The 15-year or so trend has been for mild canonical El Nino Decembers.  So a betting man would say the odds favor a mild spell to return late November and/or in December after the coming cold. This does not mean December HAS to be warm, as some of the past similar El Nino-like Decembers have featured below-normal temperatures and a couple were quite cold in much of the nation like 1968 and 2009.  That’s the thing about weather: it does not work in a straight line but rather is chaotic which is why predictions are hard.  Here is the correlation between November and Winter: So there is NOT much signal from cold in November in Atlanta and a cold winter to follow, the signal is weakly positive especially if late November is cold not early November.  Dr. Joe D’Aleo did research on what type ENSO patterns had the most month to month volatility and variability this winter looks to be active and changeable (on the higher end of the range this year but NOT quite the highest): It’s way to early for a specific Thanksgiving forecast obviously, so here are some interesting notes: How November plays out and new data not yet in for October may tip the forecast for winter one way or another. I’ll update it as needed by the start of December at the latest.  MY exclusive 5-Day FORECAST is always right here 24/7/365. Bookmark it.  Download the WSB Radio APP for my forecast and my blog plus traffic and news alerts. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • An important reflection of weather trends is the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO. Forecasters keep an eye on it both summer and winter.  Here in the Southeast it is more impactful in winter than summer.  Oversimplifying, when it is negative there is a tendency for big storms and colder than normal temperatures East of the Mississippi River.  The NAO, on average, has been in a positive phase since 2013 or so, possibly a near-record long period. And most computer models show it being mostly in a positive phase for the coming winter. A warm signal for the Eastern U.S. A positive NAO (among other things) suggests a ridge of high pressure over the Southeastern part of the country, generally suggestive of mild and dry weather more than not.  However, in recent months the NAO has trended to the negative phase. Meanwhile the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) in the Pacific has been moving toward a signal indicating high-latitude atmospheric blocking of the jet stream and this sometimes includes a negative NAO/AO which is a cold and sometimes stormy pattern.  While most models show a +NAO for the coming winter the low solar cycle and 11-year sunspot minimum coupled with a declining QBO suggest the opposite sign for the NAO.  Simplistically put it would be the difference between high pressure jet stream ridging in the East and South or more of a trough or dip in the jet stream in the East and South. The first indicative of warm/dry and the the second wet/cold.  Regardless of causation, when the Arctic regions warm and sea ice there is abnormally low the cold air gets displaced South into mid-latitude continental areas resulting in regional cold waves. There is strong unanimity in the global ensemble equations of a ridge over the West Coast (warm/dry) +PNA pattern to go along with the possibility of a -NAO in the coming week or two. Some data is suggesting that on a national basis it could turn into a top 10 cold first half of November since 1950. By the coming weekend for example, the GFS indicates a “wedge” (CAD event) with air mass trace origins from way up North: Not cross polar flow or truly arctic but still. If this happens this winter look out.  We are also observing the rapid advancement of snow coverage over Eurasia and North America. Which research from Judah Cohen has related to below-normal temperatures in winter over the Eastern U.S. and above normal snowfall at least in the Northeast quadrant of the country.  He points out that he’s being tongue in cheek about the cold winter everywhere thing, as in reality it doesn’t work out that way. Judah Cohen Research paper.  As I pointed out in my WINTER OUTLOOK blog, the most recent El Nino and La Nina patterns have behaved abnormally, basically opposite of the norm, suggesting like so many other parameters and trends that we are in a multi decadal regime of extremes one way or the other. Perhaps that means that the lengthy spell of mostly mild winters dating back to about 2011 may come to an end either this winter or next.  A see-saw pattern looking ahead at the jet stream (500mb level 18,000 feet) ECMWF model ensemble: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • For leaf peepers and apple pickers alike this is a fine weekend to head for the hills.  Set clocks back one-hour Saturday night, good time to change batteries in smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. A whopping 40 degree temperature drop from Thursdays high temperature in the mid 70s to this mornings lows in the low to mid 30s. Cool nights kick the leaf change into high gear. I know even around Kennesaw-Acworth and Woodstock where I travel most, vibrant colors have really shown up over the past week. This weekend will be dry across North and Central Georgia with plenty of sun and a chill in the air for all your apple cider, mulled wine and hot toddy hay ride needs.  The Georgia Department of Natural Resources Leaf Watch reports from the Georgia Mountains: LEAF COLOR FORECAST... This weekend: Next weekend Nov 9: Weekend of November 16th: November 23rd: Most locations did NOT quite reach or drop below freezing this morning, there were a few 31/32 readings in the usual cold spots of Bartow and Cherokee counties etc. Similar or slightly lower temperatures are expected Saturday morning. FREEZE DATES: Use this interactive map to zoom into your neighborhood and click on it for your backyard average first freeze date.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • This is MY outlook for the coming winter as it stands now. Changes in data may require adjustments after final info from November becomes available.  I will issue a final winter outlook IF NECESSARY by the start of December.  I showed you in the previous blog on the topic the overwhelming majority of computer models call for a warm winter with a rough split between wet and dry.  I don’t use the models that much but use other techniques for long-range forecasting developed before the computer era. These include teleconnections and analogs. I’ve explained this in great detail many times over the past decade or so.  Over-simplifying, there are key spots around the worlds oceans that have been found to be signals to the weather weeks and months in advance as far as average jet stream and weather. There are also a number of indices that have been developed that show correlations to the weather weeks and months ahead.   So this method looks at all of those and matches the current ones to the closet past examples from history. Then a composite of that past weather history is used to project the future with the idea that what is past is prologue. Weather and climate rarely repeat exactly but similar patterns do repeat.  Just keep in mind similar is not equal to the same. As they say on Wall Street, past performance does not guarantee future results.  I pointed out that this year the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) condition is currently weak and near-neutral and is forecast to remain such through the winter as shown in the first chart above.  A West-Central based weak “Modoki” El Nino is possible. Index forecast from Japan Met Agency: PAST ENSO CLASSIFICATIONS: EL NINO PACIFIC OCEAN REGION 3.4 FORECAST: Since the Pacific Ocean is such a major climate and weather driver when the ENSO is in a neutral or “La Nada” state (neither a clear El Nino NOR a clear La Nina) then other less predictable drivers will end up determining how the winter plays out. This raises the risk of a forecast bust and/or of a highly variable Fall, Winter and Spring pattern.  The Western Tropical Pacific is a crucial source region for the planetary circulation.  The ENSO situation also indicates a higher than normal BUST potential because of what happened last winter and what has been observed ever since. That is, many times the atmosphere and the oceans have been “decoupled”, normally they are coupled so the overlying jet stream behaves on a par with past years with similar Pacific Ocean temperature patterns. But last year and so far this year the correlation has been off. If this continues it will throw off the forecast again. A PARTIAL LIST of things looked at to make a winter outlook: ENSO including SSTA, ONI, MEI, EPO, WPO, NHI, MJO, TNH, QBO, PDO, AMO, AO, NAO, PNA, PMM, TNI, Global AAM, Indian Ocean Dipole IOD, North Pacific “Blob”, SSWE/Blocking indicators, Northern Hemisphere (Eurasia) Snow Cover advance, Arctic ice anomaly, Solar Cycle (Sunspots), Volcanic activity-atmospheric aerosol levels,  multi-decade trends and persistence of recent winters (base state), hurricane season, summer and autumn weather, Fall storm tracks, climate trends, and more.  Of course these are in a constant state of flux so they can end up behaving differently from expectation thus leading to a wrong forecast. We forecast based off where and how these things line up NOW, but they can and do change on us. For example, autumn storms can disrupt the current sea-surface temperatures and alter current expectations.  Long-range seasonal forecasting is still in its infancy compared to daily forecasting, thus a forecast for a month or more in advance has been shown scientifically to be BETTER than guessing but not by that much. I am not going to run-down all the factors in the interest of brevity, but I’ll show you a couple things being looked at for this winter. One example is a warm NE Pacific nick-named “The Blob” (by a researcher at the University of Washington): What winter jet stream pattern averaged that winter: Resulting average winter that year 2014: THIS YEAR: Oceanic SSTA teleconnections (warm and cold pools) WxBell/Weathermodels graphics: The previous SOLAR MINIMUM occurred in December of 2008, the last SOLAR MAX occurred in April of 2014. SOLAR CYCLE DATA: SILSO data/graphics Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.  We had low solar in 2008/09 and last winter  2018-19 and yet two of the three winters were warm in much of the country. There is not a one to one correlation as many mistakenly believe.  Next looking at a combination of Westerly +QBO with a near-neutral ENSO and a Solar Minimum this winter: Mid level jet stream heights shown above + = ridge -  = trough (above or below average) and resulting temperature pattern shown below, a combination between these two: On the other hand, IF a La Nina or cool ENSO situation arrises in the months ahead and the QBO stays Westerly (+) the odds for a Southeast ridge and mild winter would increase (WxBell graphics, research by Barnston .et .al): On the other hand if the QBO switches to Easterly or a negative phase then the odds of colder and stormy increase with a trough over much of the Central and East US with blocking ridges in the + red areas: The so-called warm blob, El Nino, PDO and the sun are all interrelated. The global sea-surface temperature anomaly pattern in addition to 2014 has some similarity to 2013 as of now at least.  WINTER 2013: Other past years (analogs) with some semblance to this year on low solar and global SSTAs are 1916, 1917, 1968, 1976, 1977, 1978 and 2004: QBO: The October QBO is Westerly around +7.6 so this winter is currently looking closest to C above as of now.  So you can see, as is typically the case in weather forecasting, there are conflicting/contradictory indicators.  October temperatures last year compared to this year, not too different in the Southeast: The winter that followed mild and wet, last winter: This season I anticipate multiple storm tracks with three primary, most to our North, but with a somewhat active sub-tropical jet stream across the Southern tier of states at times while the main polar jet storm tracks will be across the Midwest/Great Lakes.  To me it looks like main storm track types will be Colorado cyclones (4 corners), Pan Handle hookers, Alberta Clippers, and Miller type B cyclones. The opportunity for Miller A type cyclone tracks does look to be present especially at the back end of winter, mid-January to mid March. WINTER 2019-2020 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 3-MONTH AVERAGE DECEMBER-FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL D-F, FOLLOWED BY MAP OF PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL D-F: ANALOG YEARS AND BOTTOM LINE:  1936, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1961, 1969, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018.  I used the best match analogs to create the composite temperature and precipitation maps above. Of the top 14 analog years 11 had measurable snow, with the average being 1.7 inches. The range was 0 in three years, less than half an inch in three years and a high of 4.6 in one year. So my outlook projects the winter as a whole to have temperatures average near-normal to a bit below-normal with precipitation normal to above-normal (adjusting the analog drier) with snow/ice odds about normal. Remember this is the average for the 3-month period DJF not every day or every week. There is plenty of reason to expect periods of dry weather and warm spells with above-normal temperatures. But it’s certainly possible that when October and November inputs become available the analog list may need to be adjusted colder or warmer. I’ll do that update about December 1st if it looks necessary. HERE is a great explainer of the many factors for those who want to go more in-depth. Explore past GEORGIA SNOW EXTREMES here. 
  • Our Halloween weather is more trick than treat as a strong cold front will sweep through the area kicking out unseasonably warm weather and replacing it with unseasonably cold temperatures. In the transition more showers likely and an isolated strong thunderstorm possible. The last time we had rain on Halloween was four years ago 2015. The worst of the rain and lightning risk come before the heart of the normal PM rush hour and trick or treaters will exchange rain ponchos for a warm jacket or coat. Temperatures will start to tumble after the lunch hour and winds will gust at times to near 30 mph later today and tonight with temperatures dropping to around 50 by by 6pm and 45 by 8pm with a wind chill factor making it feel like around 38.  An isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging wind is not out of the question but the highest risk looks East of Atlanta. But even without a thunderstorm thanks to the soggy soils and our old trees, branches or trees can fall even without a severe storm causing a power outage.  The most widespread rain and thunder will come between roughly 10am and 4pm give or take a couple hours, with most of the rain done by 6pm plus or minus a couple hours.  A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect near and North of a line from Carrolton to Athens. Additional rainfall amounts will average a quarter to half an inch but with isolated one-inch amounts possible. See map above.  The National Weather Service has issued a FREEZE WARNING for all of Metro Atlanta from 11 tonight to 10 tomorrow morning.  By the way I will issue my WINTER OUTLOOK Friday on the radio 95.5 WSB 620, 720 and 820 in the morning.  MODEL ESTIMATED RADAR 10AM: MODEL RADAR ESTIMATE 1PM: MODEL RADAR ESTIMATED 3PM: MODEL ESTIMATED RADAR 6PM: MODEL SIMULATED RADAR ESTIMATE 8PM: MODEL PROJECTED TEMPERATURES... NOON: 5PM: 8PM: 8AM FRIDAY: FREEZE WARNING IN PURPLE: A dry and chilly weekend will follow, temperatures around 10 degrees below-normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • On and off rain is likely today and tomorrow, 48-hour rainfall amounts 1.5 inches on average with isolated 3-inch totals possible. Some fog and thunder/lightning in some areas along the way as well.  The risk of a thunderstorm with damaging winds is not zero but the risk level is low, a category 1 out of 5. If you want to play trick or treat safe Friday will be dry but the trade-off is colder temperatures. However, as I pointed out yesterday Halloween is not all wet, most of the rain and thunder comes before 7pm give or take a couple hours. Also brace for a sharp temperature drop for trick or treating, as the rain diminishes the temperature will fall from a mid-day high in the 70s to around 57 5pm, 52 7pm and 47 9pm with a Wind Chill Factor making it feel around 41 with winds from the NW gusting to 25mph. Low temperatures Friday morning 34-38 with a sunny day and breezy Friday highs only around 58 and lows Friday night 35-38 with some frost possible. The weekend will be without any rain, partly to mostly sunny with very dry air and frost possible at night. Highs around 10 degrees below normal 57-60 lows 34-39 with frost. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THURSDAY: FLOODING RISK ZONES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: FORECAST 48-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ESTIMATE: NAM MODEL SIMULATED RADAR ESTIMATE HALLOWEEN: 9AM NOON: 3PM: 5PM: 8PM: Do NOT take the above radar forecasts literally for that hour, remember that is just one models virtual reality simulation. Take it as the general idea. LOOK at the temperatures fall off a cliff tomorrow between 2pm and after midnight: MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.  MY first WINTER OUTLOOK will be issued on the radio Friday morning 6-9AM.
  • The chance of rain starts this afternoon but more dry than wet, rain odds rise this evening on and off through Wednesday with mild temperatures, highs in the low 70s afternoons and lows in the 60s. Estimated rain amounts today shown in map above.  Too soon to hone-in on specifics for Halloween but as of now it looks like the day could start mostly dry before a cold front pushes a line of showers and some thunderstorms in for the afternoon, with it tapering off after 8pm give or take a few hours. Daytime highs in the mid 70s with trick or treat temperatures in the 60s and breezy. Since we are this far out it’s certainly possible that the front slows down or speeds up altering the time-line and intensity of rain Halloween.  I give my forecast everyday all day on 95.5 WSB Radio, streaming and on-demand on the WSB Radio APP. So for those interested in a safe trick or treat plan B, Friday looks safely dry but much colder in the 40s and breezy.  A dry and cold weekend follows with frost possible by Sunday morning if not sooner.  SURFACE WEATHER CHART TUESDAY AFTERNOON: SURFACE WEATHER CHART WEDNESDAY MORNING: SURFACE WEATHER CHART WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: MODEL SIMULATED FORECAST RADAR THURSDAY HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON: MODEL FORECAST SIMULATED RADAR HALLOWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT: 3-DAY RAIN TOTAL ESTIMATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER: For next month according to my analogs the outlook is for temperatures to average below-normal with precipitation near-normal to a little below-normal. Not every day or every week this is the 30-day mean: However, the NOAA/NWS OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER DIFFERS: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The Friday surface weather chart is shown above.  Rain chances are high today and tomorrow BUT there are NOT endless days and endless hours of rain in the forecast nor is a week of constant rain being forecast. No complete wash-out days are foreseen as of now. Scattered showers are likely today and tonight but it will not rain constantly and will not be raining everywhere all the time.  Showers will be on the increase as the day goes on diminishing gradually during high school football games tonight, a few scattered showers during the day Saturday with showers increasing Saturday evening with a few showers Sunday morning, mostly dry Sunday afternoon through Monday. There should even be at least some sunshine on Sunday and Monday. Chance of rain is back Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Halloween. Trick or treat temperatures look to be in the 50s from this distance with a 40% chance of showers. Obviously a lot can change by then so check back for updates.  In fact, you’ll notice below the models have almost a 10 degree spread on temp outcome for the 31st. The heaviest rain amounts next three days look to be Northwest of the perimeter, especially mountains.  Much of the showers will be light (occasionally moderate) but over the course of the next 48 hours it will add up. RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATE BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND 2PM SUNDAY: Moisture feed part of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures today split with the ole “wedge” pattern, low 60s far NE suburbs and upper 60s far SW suburbs, lows tonight 59-62. Highs Saturday 70 North 76 South lows at night 56-60. Sunday highs 70-72 with lows at night around 52. So the bottom line is a chance of rain anytime today tonight and tomorrow but the most widespread today 2pm-11pm and the most widespread tomorrow after 5pm give or take a couple hours.  Temperatures AVERAGE above-normal next 5 days: EUROPEAN MODEL ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE OUTPUT: AMERICAN MODEL ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE OUTPUT: MULTI MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE: Rainfall next 10-days AVERAGES above-normal with active jet stream energy in Southwest to Northeast flow: Thanks to Georgia Department of Natural Resources for leaf information.  Around Kennesaw-Acworth-Woodstock where I travel most, I am finally seeing some great splashes of vibrant color, not widespread but noticeable. COLOR THIS WEEKEND: COLOR NOVEMBER 2ND: COLOR NOVEMBER 9TH: LEAF COLOR NOVEMBER 16TH: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

News

  • The former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine is testifying Friday in the second public hearing in the impeachment investigation of President Donald Trump. >> Read more trending news  Marie Yovanovitch will appear before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to answers questions about her time as ambassador in Ukraine and how she believed she was driven out of that position by Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal lawyer. The hearing, which begins at 9 a.m. ET, will be broadcast live on CSPAN, CNN, Fox News and other cable news channels. Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, (D-California), and the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, (R-California), will question Yovanovitch in 45-minute segments each then committee members will have five minutes each to question Yovanovitch. Watch the live stream of Friday’s hearing here Live updates Social media can be mean? 1 p.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: GOP counsel Castor argues that a Ukrainian official was “out to get” Trump via tweets as Trump was running for president and that the official said some “mean things.” 'Sometimes that happens on social media,” Yovanovitch said, eliciting laughter from the room. ‘Ukrainian establishment’ wanted her out 12:42 p.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Under questioning by Castor, Yovanovitch said the 'Ukrainian establishment” had hoped her removal as ambassador would pave the way for them to do things that would be against US interests. 'I think that, in addition, there were Americans, these two individuals who were working with mayor Giuliani, Mr. Parnas and Mr. Fruman, who have recently been indicted by the Southern District of New York, who indicated that they wanted to change out the ambassador, and I think they must have had some reason for that.' Republicans begin asking questions 12:32 p.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Nunes asks Yovanovitch if she was present for the July 26 call between Trump and Zelensky, she answers no. He asks if she was present or had talked to other White House officials concerning Ukraine. She says she had not. Nunes then recognizes Rep. Elise Stefanik to ask questions. Stefanik attempts to ask a question but Schiff cuts her off, saying she has not been recognized. Nunes and Schiff argue about who can yield time to a committee member. Schiff says she cannot ask questions at this time and Nunes then yields to Steve Castor, the counsel for the Republicans. The hearing has resumed 12:22 p.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: The hearing has resumed and Republicans are asking questions. In a break 10:45 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: The hearing has been suspended for a short recess for House members to vote.  Trump tweets, Yovanovitch defends herself  10:30 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019: Schiff read a tweet from Trump this morning disparaging Yovanovitch’s service. Trump said that “everywhere Marie Yovanovitch went turned bad.” Schiff asks if she wants to address the tweet. Yovanovitch answered, “I don’t think I have such powers,” but went on to say that her work “demonstrably made things better, both for the US and for the countries I’ve served in.” Fearing a tweet 10:24 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Goldman asks Yovanovitch if she was given a vote of support from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. She said she was not. He asked if she knew why not. She said the department feared that the president would post a tweet contradicting any support. ‘Devastated' by Trump's Ukraine call 10:15 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019: Yovanovitch said she was “shocked” and “devastated” by the White House memo on Trump’s call with Zelensky. The transcript included the phrase that Yovanovitch is “bad news.” “A person who saw me actually reading the transcript said the color drained from my face,” Yovanovitch told Daniel Goldman, a former federal prosecutor with the Southern District of New York who is the counsel for the Democrats. She said Trump’s comment that she was “going to go through some things,” in his call with Zelensky, “felt like a vague threat.” ‘Big hit for morale’ 10 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019: Schiff asked Yovanovitch how her recall was received by colleagues in the State Department. Yovanovitch said, 'Well, it's been a big hit for morale, both at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv and also more broadly in the State Department.' She also that it’s fair to say that her firing affected morale of other ambassadors. Yovanovitch's opening statement 9:33 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Yovanovitch is giving her opening statement, talking about the sometime dangers of foreign service. She opened her statement by recounting her family’s history. They fled the Soviet Union. She says she has served in several “hardship” posts as a diplomat.  She talked about her work in Ukraine. 'Not all Ukrainians embraced our anti-corruption work. Thus, perhaps, it was not surprising, that when our anti-corruption efforts got in the way of a desire for profit or power, Ukrainians who preferred to play by the old, corrupt rules sought to remove me. What continues to amaze me is that they found Americans willing to partner with them and, working together, they apparently succeeded in orchestrating the removal of a U.S. Ambassador. How could our system fail like this? How is it that foreign corrupt interests could manipulate our government?' She says she never tried to work against Trump or for Clinton. She said she has never met Hunter Biden but did know former Vice President Joe Biden. Nunes’ turn 9:20 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Rep. Nunes is speaking now. He says five of the members of the Intelligence Committee voted to impeach Trump before he ever made the July 26 phone call. He complains that the Democrats met secretly with the whistleblower and that Republicans have been threatened if they try to find out the person’s name and release it. He also said Democrats went after nude photos of Trump. He is reading the just-released transcript into the record. The hearing has begun 9:10 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Schiff is giving his opening statement. He is praising Yovanovitch’s qualifications and her anti-corruption work in Ukraine. He's asking why Trump wanted to recall Yovanovitch from her post. Phone call transcript released 9:05 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: The White House has released the transcript of the first phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That phone call took place in April. This is not the phone call the whistleblower reported on. People are getting to their seats 9 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: House Intelligence Committee members, the press and spectators are coming into the room for the start of the hearing. $3 million in donations 8:55 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale announced on Thursday that the Trump campaign raised more than $3 million on Wednesday during the first public impeachment hearings. A case of bribery? 8:47 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: On Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, accused Trump of bribery. Pelosi pointed out at her weekly press conference that bribery is “in the Constitution” as a reason for impeaching a president. Yovanovitch has arrived 8:38 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Yovanovitch has arrived at Capitol Hill with her attorneys and is entering the building. One public hearing and two in private8:35 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: While Yovanovitch will testify in public Friday, David Holmes will appear before the committee afterward in a closed-door session. Holmes is a State Department employee who claims to have overheard a phone conversation about Ukraine between Gordon Sondland, the ambassador to the European Union, and Trump. On Saturday, Mark Sandy, an office of Management and Budget official, will testify before the committee in private. Sandy will be the first OMB official to agree to testify before the committee. How the hearing will go 8:15 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: The hearing will be conducted in the same way as Wednesday’s hearing with William Taylor and George Kent was conducted. Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-California, and the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, R-California, will question Taylor and Kent in 45-minute segments each. Those 45 minutes can be delegated to the staff lawyers or other committee members. After the extended 45-minute periods, the committee will go back to its usual format of five-minute rounds of questions for committee members. Let’s get started 8 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Good morning and welcome to live updates from the second public hearing of the impeachment inquiry. The hearing begins in an hour, at 9 a.m. ET. Live updates coming 6 a.m. ET Nov. 15, 2019: Live updates of Marie Yovanovitch's testimony will begin at 8 a.m. ET. The hearing begins at 9 a.m. ET [Summary]
  • A jury found Roger Stone guilty Friday of obstruction, giving false statements to Congress and tampering with witnesses in special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. >> Read more trending news  The verdict came on the second day of jury deliberations. Stone had denied any wrongdoing and framed the charges as politically motivated. Update 12:20 p.m. EST Nov. 15: Jurors found Stone guilty Friday of all seven counts against him, including one charge of obstruction, one charge of witness tampering and five charges of making false statements connected to his pursuit stolen emails damaging to Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential bid. U.S. District Judge Amy Berman set a February 6 sentencing date for Stone, Fox News reported. Until then, Berman allowed Stone to be released on his own recognizance. Stone, who did not take the stand during his trial, is the sixth Trump aide or adviser to be convicted of charges brought as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. The president slammed the jury's verdict Friday, questioning in a tweet whether Stone fell victim to 'a double standard like never seen before in the history of our Country.' Original report: Jury deliberations in the case against Roger Stone, a political consultant and confidant of President Donald Trump, extended into a second day Friday after jurors failed to reach a verdict on whether he lied to Congress about his attempts to contact WikiLeaks during the 2016 presidential election. Jurors asked U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson two questions Thursday during their six hours of deliberations, Reuters reported. The questions were about what was considered testimony in the case and a request for a clarification of the charges, according to the Courthouse News Service. Authorities arrested Stone in January on charges brought by then-special counsel Robert Mueller, who headed the Justice Department's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Stone was charged with obstruction, giving false statements and witness tampering. Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Kravis said Stone lied to protect the Trump campaign from embarrassment and scrutiny in its quest for emails hacked by Russian officials and disseminated by WikiLeaks, according to The Washington Post. Attorneys for Stone claimed he never intentionally deceived Congress and that he was simply wrong in his testimony after committee members unexpectedly peppered him with WikiLeaks-related questions. 'There was nothing illegal about the campaign being interested in information that WikiLeaks was going to be putting out,' defense attorney Bruce S. Rogow said, according to the Post. 'This is what happens in a campaign. … It happens in every campaign.' In testimony, several witnesses highlighted how Trump campaign associates were eager to gather information about the more than 19,000 emails the U.S. says were hacked by Russia and then provided to WikiLeaks. Former campaign CEO Steve Bannon reluctantly testified last week and told jurors Trump's campaign saw Stone as an 'access point' to WikiLeaks. He said Stone boasted about his ties to the anti-secrecy group and its founder, Julian Assange. Bannon said campaign officials tried to use Stone to get advanced word about hacked emails damaging to Trump's rival in the 2016 presidential election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Rick Gates, who served as a campaign aide for Trump, told jurors Stone asked him in June 2016 for the contact information of Trump's son-in-law and then-senior campaign adviser, Jared Kushner. Stone wanted to 'debrief' him on developments about the hacked emails, Gates said. Stone has proclaimed his innocence and accused Mueller's team of targeting him because of his politics. He could face up to 20 years in prison if he's convicted. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
  • A newborn’s body was found on a pile of rocks on the side of the road Tuesday night, authorities said. >> Read more trending news  The infant was found lying in the fetal position with the umbilical cord still attached in freezing temperatures, News12 reported. Investigators are interviewing the child’s mother. Charges have not been filed and there have been no arrests, WPVI reported. Her identity has not been released. 
  • Roger Stone was one of the key figures of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into alleged Russian election meddling, accused fo trying to contact WikiLeaks during the 2016 presidential race, NBC News reported. Stone was found guilty of all charges he faced including making false statements to Congress and obstruction of justice. Stone's lawyers said that any misstatements their client made to lawmakers were unintentional, the Washington Post reported shortly after his arrest. Who is Roger Stone? Stone was born in 1952 and was raised in Lewisboro, New York. His mother was a newspaper writer and his father was a well digger. Stone started his conservative leanings when a neighbor gave him a book, “The Conscience of a Conservative,” written by Barry Goldwater. It was given to him before he turned 13. Shortly after, he started working on the mayoral campaign for William F. Buckley Jr. in New York on weekends in 1965, The New Yorker uncovered in an article published in 2008.  He attended George Washington University but didn’t graduate because he got into politics, working with Republican candidates for more than 40 years, according to The New Yorker. >> Read more trending news  He was only 19 when Watergate happened, and he, under the name Jason Rainier, made contributions to Pete McCloskey, who was challenging President Richard Nixon for the Republican nomination. Stone, as Rainier, made the contributions through the Young Socialist Alliance and then released the receipt to a newspaper to show that McCloskey was a left-wing candidate, according to The New Yorker. Stone also hired another person to work in  George McGovern’s Democratic presidential campaign. Both events were uncovered during the Watergate hearings in 1973. He lost a job on the staff of Republican Bob Dole because of the hearings and started the National Conservative Political Action Committee, which backed Republicans Chuck Grassley in Iowa and Dan Quayle in Indiana. Stone also worked twice on the Republican presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan -- once in 1976, when Reagan didn’t win, and again in 1980, when he did -- then as political director for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, The New Yorker reported. After Reagan took office, Stone stayed in the private sector, creating a political consulting and lobbying firm that went under different names, including Black, Manafort, Stone & Atwater.  The firm worked for corporations like Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. to lobby former co-workers in the Reagan campaign who held jobs in the administration. It also served clients like Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, The New Yorker found. Focusing more on political campaigns as a solo entity instead of lobbying as part of a group, Stone worked as a senior consultant for the successful campaign of George H.W. Bush and worked three campaigns for Republican Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter. He also ran unsuccessful campaigns for Dole’s 1996 quest for president. He was brought in when the 2000 presidential recount started in Florida. He played the political game on radio stations in southern Florida, saying that the recount was Al Gore’s left-wing power grab, The New Yorker reported. His efforts, along with other Republican assets, empowered George W. Bush’s Republican supporters to protest the second recount. Stone wanted, and got, the recount in Miami shut down in what became the “Brooks Brothers riot,” The Washington Post and The New Yorker reported. Stone also worked on  the younger Bush’s re-election campaign. It is believed documents obtained by CBS News that showed that Bush got out of military service for Vietnam were actually fake and that Stone was the person who created the documents, The New Yorker reported. Stone was one of President Donald Trump’s panel of long-time advisors, The Washington Post reported. He was connected to Trump when the now-president floated the idea of running in 2000.  Then, Trump said, “Roger is a stone-cold loser,” who “always takes credit for things he never did,” according to The New Yorker. Despite the harsh words then-private sector member Trump had for Stone, he used Stone for his campaign not once, but twice, teaming up in 2011 when Trump toyed with, but eventually decided against a presidential run. They went their different ways in August 2015, the Times reported.  But who pulled the plug on Stone’s tenure on the Trump campaign? Stone said he resigned and Trump’s campaign officials said he had been fired, The New York Times reported. Trump said of the firing, “I hardly ever spoke to the guy; he was just there. He played no role of any kind,” the Times reported in 2015. But Stone was listed on Federal Election Commission filings as being on the campaign payroll and he used Twitter to defend Trump during the campaign, according to the Times. What is his connection to Trump? Stone has been scrutinized for having ties to WikiLeaks by using an associate as an intermediary between himself and people associated with WikiLeaks, CNN reported. Stone spoke about having “back channel communications” with Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, during the campaign. Stone later said the “back channel” was really a New York radio host, Randy Credico, who allegedly shared only information gleaned from interviews with Assange, CNN reported. Stone also predicted releases of information by WikiLeaks in the final days of the campaign between Trump and his Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton, CNN reported.  Stone said in a column for Breitbart, the website run by former Trump campaign adviser Steve Bannon, that it wasn’t the Russians who hacked the servers containing the emails leaked by WikiLeaks, but it was actually a hacker who went by the name Guccifer 2.0.  >>Read: Russian hackers indicted: Who is Guccifer 2.0? Here are 15 things to know Despite Stone’s assertions in the column, some have linked Guccifer 2.0 to Russian web services, Foreign Policy reported.  In July 2016, the Times reported that intelligence agencies had “high confidence” that the Russian government was behind the email leaks and that Guccifer 2.0 was in reality an agent of the Russian military intelligence service, or GRU. Mueller’s team is investigating whether there were other connections between Stone and WikiLeaks. That connection could come in the form of Jerome Corsi, another associate of Stone’s who said this week that he expects to be indicted by Mueller for “giving false information to the special counsel or to one of the other grand jury,” CNN reported. If Corsi’s prediction comes true, he could face charges from perjury to making false claims and even obstruction of justice, all related to false statements he made about his alleged connection between WikiLeaks and Stone, CNN reported. Stone, however, said he was truthful in previous testimony before a congressional panel. >>Read: 12 Russians indicted: Here’s what the DOJ says happened “My attorneys have fully reviewed all my written communications with Dr. Corsi,” Stone wrote in a statement to CNN. “When those aren’t viewed out of context they prove everything I have said under oath regarding my interaction with Dr. Corsi is true.” Stone went on to write, “I stand by my statement to the House Intelligence Committee and can prove it is truthful if need be. I have passed two polygraph tests administered and analyzed by two of the nation's leading experts to prove I have (been) truthful.” >>Read: 12 Russians indicted: Military officials accused of hacking DNC, stealing voter info Corsi said Stone warned that there would be trouble for Clinton campaign Chairman John Podesta after Corsi published an article for InfoWars. After Stone’s statement, WikiLeaks released thousands of hacked emails from Podesta, CNN reported.  >>Read: WikiLeaks emails: FBI investigates, Podesta claims he was targeted by Russian hackers Stone tweeted “it will soon the Podesta’s time in the barrel” six weeks before WikiLeaks published the emails, The Washington Post reported. >>Read: Julian Assange: WikiLeaks source was 'not the Russian government' Stone said he did not tell Trump that WikiLeaks was going to release the hacked emails and denied working with Russia, CNN reported. But Stone did say in a recent opinion piece for The Daily Caller, that he emailed Bannon during the campaign, CNN reported. Stone, in the column, clarified that the information he shared with Bannon was publicly available. Stone said the statements he made during the campaign were exaggerations or tips only and that he didn’t know details of WikiLeaks’ plans before the document drops, the Post reported.
  • A brake fluid leak on certain Nissan cars and SUVs could lead to risk of fire prompting the automaker to recall about 394,000 vehicles in the United States. >> Read more trending news  An antilock brake actuator pump can leak onto a circuit board, causing electrical shorts and fires. Because of the risk, Nissan recommends owners park the vehicles outside and away from buildings if the antilock brake light is on for more than 10 seconds.  The recall covers 2015 to 2018 Nissan Murano SUVs, 2016 to 2018 Maxima sedans and 2017 to 2019 Infiniti QX60 and Nissan Pathfinder SUVs, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. This is the second recall for some of the same vehicles. In 2018, Nissan dealers inspected parts but did not replace the pumps if fluid wasn’t leaking. Dealers will now replace pumps on all of the vehicles. The Associated Press contributed to this report. 
  • An Arkansas paramedic is charged with felony theft after authorities allege she cut a 1.7-carat diamond ring off a dead patient’s finger last month and pawned it for $45. Lisa Darlene Glaze, 50, of Hot Springs Village, is charged with theft by receiving and misdemeanor transfer of stolen property to a pawn shop, according to Garland County court records. Arrested Monday, she has since been released on $4,500 bond. >> Read more trending news  The Sentinel-Record in Hot Springs reported that Glaze, a paramedic at CHI St. Vincent Hot Springs, was one of the paramedics who attended to Gloria Farrar Robinson on Oct. 16 when the 72-year-old Whie Hall woman suffered a medical emergency. A probable cause affidavit obtained by the newspaper stated Robinson was taken to CHI St. Vincent, where she later died. After Robinson died, her personal effects were given to her husband, identified in her obituary as Leonard Robinson, and her sister, Alesia Massey. Massey asked Glaze about three of Robinson’s rings that were missing. Glaze “did not answer her and walked away,” according to the affidavit. Robinson’s husband and sister went to Fuller Hale South Funeral Home in Pine Bluff two days later to make funeral arrangements, at which time they were given a bag with two of the missing rings, the Sentinel-Record reported. A 1.7-carat diamond, gold solitaire ring was still missing. The ring, which was adorned with a marquise-cut diamond, had been cut off Robinson’s finger, according to the affidavit. On Oct. 24, eight days after Robinson died, Glaze went to Hot Springs Classic Guns and Loan with a marquise-cut, solitaire diamond ring with a gold band. She sold the ring, which the pawnshop worker noted had a cut in the band, for $45, the court documents allege. Glaze used her driver’s license for identification during the transaction, the Sentinel-Record reported. Five days after the sale, a Montgomery County investigator went to the pawnshop and took photos of the ring, sending the images to Robinson’s husband and sister. Both identified the ring as belonging to the deceased woman, the affidavit said. The pawnshop employee who bought the ring identified Glaze in a photo as the woman who sold the piece of jewelry, the Sentinel-Record reported. Massey, Robinson’s sister, retrieved the ring from the pawnshop and had it appraised. The ring was determined to be worth nearly $8,000. Robinson’s son, Ben Ellis, castigated Glaze in a Facebook post Wednesday, calling her an expletive before questioning her care of his dying mother. “You stole my mother’s rings off her hands after she died?” Ellis wrote. “Did you let my mother die so you could steal her jewelry?” A woman named Diane McAlister offered Ellis her condolences. “Gloria was a wonderful, hardworking person. She respected everyone,” McAlister wrote. “I hope this person is prosecuted to the highest degree.” According to her obituary, Robinson worked as a payroll officer at Southeast Arkansas College for more than 20 years. Glaze has been placed on administrative leave with pay by the hospital, which issued a statement to the Sentinel-Record about the case. “CHI St. Vincent Hot Springs places a priority on the safety and well-being of our patients and our healing ministry is committed to their security while in our care,” the statement read. The hospital is continuing to cooperate with the investigation, officials said. If convicted, Glaze faces up to 10 years in prison on the felony theft charge and up to a year in county jail for the charge of selling stolen property to the pawnshop, the newspaper said.