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Kirk Mellish Blog

    The big drop in temperature and humidity I first told you about in this blog space last Saturday is upon us but won’t last.  A more southerly air flow will resume by Sunday and as temperatures rise so will the humidity.  This will lead to the introduction of a more normal and typical weather pattern for this time of year, warm and humid with a mix of sunshine and clouds along with scattered mainly afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, pretty much par for the course in late June and the rest of summer.  A stray late day thunderstorm is not out of the question Sunday but most of us will stay dry all weekend with a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms next week: SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: NON-computer model based methods such as the phase of the MJO, AAM, and GWO suggest much of the nation will experience a return of more pockets of heavy rain and severe weather. This looks especially true of the nations mid-section.  But as we finish out June and enter July both computer and non-model methods suggest at least some severe weather risk will return to the Southeastern U.S. probably in the form of 'pulse-type'  thunderstorms a hybrid form of a single-cell thunderstorm, rather than any front. I’ve written dozen of blogs in the past explaining them and how they work in Georgia.  The fairly significant signal of a growing severe weather threat in the country can be seen from GFS Ensemble data of the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) with a notable up-tick after June 15th and even more so after the 18th: You can see the progression of this experimental NIU data from the accompanying analogs for significant tornadoes (top row) and hail (bottom row) for weeks 2 and 3 giving some spatial distribution: CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE: Further support comes from the WSI average severe weather index (mean of next 10-days): This does not mean every day has severe weather the next ten but rather this is the cumulative aggregate over the 10-day period.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The rare June CAD event (”the wedge”) is taking hold today after the front moved in and then unexpectedly stalled last night (illustration above) resulting in a handful of heavy thunderstorms that became stationary over the same areas resulting in 3 inches of rain or more in spots, so while more than half the area stayed dry or just had a few drops where it really rained it poured. The stationary wedge front allowed for stronger than expected moisture convergence as air streams collided. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL: DOPPLER RADAR IMAGE TUESDAY 9:40PM:  Today that wedge front pushes into Alabama taking the main rain convergence zone with it: ESTIMATED RAINFALL TODAY: Rain amounts today only a tenth to a quarter of an inch on average with isolated totals over half an inch possible. More dry hours than wet more clouds than sun. Temperatures at least 10 degrees below normal today. Tomorrow a cold front moves through the area sweeping the moist air out and unusually dry air in for Thursday and Friday with fee air conditioning open window weather Thursday and Friday nights (lows in the 50s) as high pressure takes over with low dew points/low humidity: Then over the weekend that high pressure system moves off East into the Atlantic and the clockwise circulation around the high will return a Southerly wind flow bringing back higher humidity and scattered clouds with much warmer temperatures on the weekend. By next week scattered pop-up thundershowers return as more normal summer weather resumes: My exclusive 5-Day Forecast here 24/7/365. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The ABOVE map shows ACCUMULATED AVERAGE RAINFALL ESTIMATE NEXT 3-DAYS. After flooding occurs in parts of Georgia and adjacent states yet another big swing in the weather is coming. Last time we went from recored heat and dry in May to this muggy and occasionally wet spell. Now we will flip again from warm and humid with rain to very dry air with comfortable day and night time temperatures with a big change in air mass leading to refreshing mornings again. In many Spring and Summer season that never happens even once, this will be the second time the first was a few days before the heat wave started. There could even be a significant “wedge” pattern (CAD Event) Wednesday. Expect below-normal temperatures to continue next 8 days.  The rain chance will start falling by Thursday, then it goes away Friday and Saturday as a series of cold fronts sweep the moisture away and carry in dew points in the 50s on Northwest winds as strong high pressure builds over our region, a rarity in June for the South! There are no guarantees in weather but from here NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE !  SURFACE FRONTS AND PRESSURE SYSTEMS NEXT 7 DAYS: Look at how the air mass changes from today to the end of next week: PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR TROPICAL TIDBITS: SATURDAY: FRIDAY JUNE 14TH:
  • SURFACE WEATHER MAP MID DAY FRIDAY ABOVE. We our in a deep tropical air mass from the Gulf of Mexico and the pattern will be slow to change the next 5 days.  Rather limited sunshine until late next week, next weekend looks drier and warmer than this weekend.  I discussed in my last blog back on Wednesday how experience has taught me computer models usually exaggerate the rain chance and rain amounts in a tropical air mass because they turn all moisture into rain instead of using it to generate a lot of cloud cover and just some rain.  So I told you there should be more clouds than rain Thursday and Friday, with luck that will be the case on the weekend as well. I’ll update as needed. I also pointed out how heavy thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast often siphon off rain that would otherwise fall on Atlanta and the mountains. We’ve been seeing that so far as well.  So for the next 5 days the chance of rain IS above-normal for this time of year and there is a risk of a shower or thundershower at anytime of the day or night but there should be some breaks in the rain as well and the sun could peak out.  We have uniformly saturated air with a slow moving broad low pressure and frontal system surface and aloft next 5 days with random chaotic impulses of energy in the jet stream flow. Unfortunately there is no way to forecast rain start/stop times in this type pattern but no constant all day rain is anticipated as of now.  SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FRIDAY: 72-HOUR ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS: In this kind of chaotic weather pattern which lacks a single clear frontal passage to focus on, the rain and thunderstorm forecast often has to be updated every 4-8 hours so stay tuned.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The long-awaited shift in the weather pattern is underway as what has been for MOST of us a 3-week long dry spell ends and the chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms will be on the increase along with the humidity Today through next Wednesday and the temperatures will trend down with the increase in cloud cover. The map above shows estimated 5-day rainfall totals.  I haven’t been able to say below-normal temperatures in a couple months but that’s whats coming tomorrow through much of next week! AS of now not expecting much in the way of  severe weather but stay tuned in case that changes in the days ahead. Despite my having explained this a thousand times people still don’t seem to understand the chance of rain. You can have the chance of rain be 100% likely, but 90% of the day could be dry. It doesn’t have to mean a rainy day or wash-out.  It CAN mean that IF thats what the forecaster tells you, the devil is in the details so you have to listen to my explanation on the radio, on twitter, and here in the blog or in the forecast detail box at wsbradio.com by clicking on the forecast link.  You can google POP (probability of precipitation) and read all about it to learn more.  So far I do not see any total wash-out days, however Friday-Sunday could come close.  In the past I’ve observed the models often mistake tropical moisture for all rain when much of it just goes into cloud production, also heavy rain occurring near the Gulf Coast can often siphon off rain that would otherwise occur further North. I’ll be better able to fine-tune these details in the days ahead so check back.  What’s causing the new weather pattern? The entrainment of an influx of moisture will be driven into the Southern Plains and Dixie to the East Coast over the next 7 days as an upper level cut-off low pressure system (blue ball in maps below) ejects out from the Desert Southwest into the Southeast between now and next Wednesday. Some of this moisture can be attributed to the tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico near Texas: The upper level “cut-off” low pressure system in the jet stream weakens as it moves through our region but it will still be juicy as it pulls in deeper gulf moisture and squeezes it out.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY: Above-normal rain the next 10-15 days means normal or below-normal temperatures: GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:   For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • For several days smoke from Canadian wildfires has been spreading across much of the Eastern part of the nation, brush fires in parts of the U.S. are now adding on to that. Even in the absence of clouds instead of looking blue the sky has been hazy milky white daytime and more colorful than usual at sunrise and sunset. This is from Monday morning: This afternoon blue arrows point to smoke: It has made it all the way “across the pond” (Atlantic Ocean) this is from the UK Weather Office: The smoke is too high in the atmosphere to be a breathing hazard and too high to smell.  Models show it will persist a couple more days but will be thinning out: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • Fair weather high pressure is building in today (map above) behind the front that sparked a few hit and miss thundershowers in 10-20% of the Metro area. Temperatures will remain well above-normal the next few days but not like last week, and the humidity will be down today and Tuesday. But as that high pressure system moves offshore into the Atlantic things will begin to change. The air flow will turn around to a more southerly trajectory on the backside of the high’s clockwise air circulation starting Wednesday: (pivotalweather) That opens up the Gulf of Mexico to bring increasing humidity and that process is expected to continue beyond Wednesday for 5-10 days, and that will provide fuel for scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing by the weekend and next week as we watch the tropics and a series of disturbances develop and head in our direction: GFS ENSEMBLE 8-DAY ESTIMATED RAINFALL AVERAGE: The temperatures will be down but the humidity will go way up and the pattern looks like it could last a week or two, so that should put a dent in the drought before it gets out of hand. By the end of June we could even be looking at above-normal rain totals in many areas.   For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB. 
  • The break in the extreme heat is coming just as forecast, you can see the first weak cold front approaching on the Friday morning surface weather map above. We had 9 consecutive days of 90 or above. This has been the warmest May on record in Atlanta where records go back to 1878!  The streak with no rain stands at 18 days in a row.  If you are very lucky the front will produce a shower or thundershower for you later today, but the odds are too low for me to put in the formal forecast. The front will help drop temperatures and humidity the next few days so no worse than 90 the next 5-10 days and many of us will stay in the upper 80s (normal this time of year is 83) with more comfortable temperatures overnight with morning lows 59-67. Another weak cold front moves through late Sunday-early Monday but again the slight chance of a shower with it is not worth getting excited about.  It looks like a more typical summertime chance of pop-up thundershowers by late next week with better odds next weekend and the week beyond. MOST of us will not see an afternoon high above 90 for the next 7-15 days.  After all that coolish weather and the wet period of March/April and the first half of May the reversal now has our rainfall surplus for the year down to just over half an inch.  I talked about the summer outlook in several previous blogs and tweets.  Short-term drought is spreading across the Southeastern U.S. worse in SE Georgia: Meanwhile the center of the country gets hammered by flooding rain and tornadoes with late season snow in the Rockies and Desert Southwest. But as the amplified jet stream pattern breaks down and reconfigures itself less extreme weather is expected for at least a few days to a week.  Some 8 locations set new record high river levels already and several more may set record high flood levels in the days to come, at least 5 cities set new monthly rain records for wettest May in history including Chicago.  Notice the rainfall and temperature contrasts and extremes across the country one extreme or the other: (graphic Gensiniweather) Jet stream “blocking” pattern with blocking high pressure aloft over Greenland and Alaska with amplified pattern “goosed” by MJO energy/lift from the South Pacific. Baroclinic zone in temperature contrast is the storm track where flooding and tornadoes occur thanks to stuck pattern as disturbances repeatedly ride along within the jet stream flow: (CBS News graphics) This active tornado season follows a 7 year period of low tornado numbers and a record low in the most violent EF 3-5 twisters. 2018 had a record low number of twisters.  YTD only 2008 and 2011 had more tornadoes than this year to date since 1950 with 1006 tornado reports so far this year.  As the pattern breaks down the high pressure ridge over our region heads back to a more normal location for summer out West/Southwest: NOW: LATER: This allows temperatures to back down a little and scattered showers to increase a little as we move further into June: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB. 
  • A few more days of near record heat but then it begins to back down A LITTLE after mid-week. However, temperatures WILL continue to be warmer than average for another couple weeks, just less extreme.  Six consecutive days of 90 or higher and more to come. Also, most of the area has not had rain in 16 days and counting.  Only the lucky will get any shower or thunderstorm the next 7 days as the humidity levels remain modest. Most of us stay dry and irrigation of lawns, gardens, and farms will be needed as drought expands.  The chance of a shower or thunderstorm will increase after June 3rd or so, BUT still with odds lower than normal for this time of year.  It looks like we will have to wait until AFTER June 5/6 or so before we can get back to a more normal chance of those pop-up afternoon and evening thunderstorms Atlanta is famous for in the Summer as the humidity rises.  This means we are going to have a long relentlessly hot brutal summer of extreme heat right? NOPE. It does not have to mean that as we have had early heat waves in the past and the summer has gone on to be fairly normal or just a little above average.  It does NOT look like a cool summer by any means, but for now it looks like we will go back and forth between normal heat and above-normal heat. So there will be more heat waves and dry spells to come during the rest of summer, but doesn’t look non-stop at least not yet. So yes a warmer than normal summer IS expected with rainfall near-normal to a little below-normal.  IF however, we stay drier than normal for another few weeks or more, that would tip the scales for us have an above average number of mid 90 to 100 degree days! NOTICE how the the jet stream pattern changes between Memorial Day and the start of June as the flow pattern “flattens out” and the high pressure height levels of the extreme upper-level heat ridge over the Southeast breaks down: 500 MB Jet Stream ECMWF MODEL: CAS MODEL SUMMER OUTLOOK: EL NINO The ENSO state continues to be in the very weak El Nino to neutral zone and forecast to remain so through summer: This suggests minimal impact on the coming hurricane season so I would expect the number of tropical cyclones to be around average on a par with last season but I think odds of a little above normal number of storms is greater than the odds of a below average number of systems, but data next month should help clarify the outlook. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB. Have a nice day and thanks for listening to my reports on AM750 and 955FM WSB Radio, reading my blog and checking my online 5-day forecast at wsbradio.com 
  • It’s interesting to note that there are varying definitions of “a heat wave” because of course it depends on where you live and people vary on what they think hot is, some people even like hot weather while some like it cold. Some hot weather is normal and to be expected in the spring but mainly summer. BUT there is expected normal heat, and then there is heat above the normal and that is unseasonably hot.  This time of year in ATLANTA a normal (average) or seasonably hot day would be 82-86.  Our last 90 degree day was back on October 6th 2018. The average first 90 day in Atlanta is May 31st.  The past two days saw low 90s in parts of the Metro area and that arrived two weeks EARLIER THAN NORMAL and a full 10 degrees above average! And it’s not even officially summer yet! And this would be hotter than normal even if it was summer. Typically Atlanta only gets ONE 90 day in May, but this time we’re looking at ten.  We’ve never had 100 in May.  The “Dog days of summer” don’t start until July 3rd but this year mother nature doesn’t care.  Heat Wave Definitions: By any definition It’s certainly begun. 90 degree high temperatures are expected to last 2-3 weeks with below-normal rainfall. Drought will spread across the state but at least area lakes are full so no threat to water supplies or for water restrictions for now. And the humidity will not be unusually high so at least the heat index will just be on a par with the actual air temperature for the foreseeable future rather than well above it as often happens.  Remember the air temperature is measured in the shade, in direct sunlight it can feel up to 15 degrees hotter.  Dew Point is a better measure than “relative humidity” for determining discomfort levels. Discomfort from humidity even in the shade starts at 60 and gets worse the higher it goes from there.  Our dew points are expected to be modestly humid 60-65 on average next 10 days producing a Heat Index of 94-98 the next 7 days.  Dress appropriately and don’t over exert and take care of the pets with water and shade and preferably inside with A/C. Don’t get too much sun, sunburn makes it more difficult for the body to cool itself.  Air quality will go down to unhealthy levels during a heat wave, lower pollution levels early morning and early evening are best for outdoor exercise for less ozone and less heat.  PLEASE NOTE:  Even on a cloudy day the rays that produce heat STILL penetrate a car and raise temperature inside 40 degrees or more to unhealthy levels even it its overcast even if outside temperature is “only” in the low or mid 80s!  Cracking windows is NOT enough for kids or pets.  Shorts, T-shirts, sunglasses and sandals/flip-flops weather to be sure have water to stay hydrated.  ATLANTA gets an average of 31 days with a high of at least 90 in summer and a yearly average of 35.  The most 100 degree days in a year in Atlanta is 9 back in 2007. The last time we had a 100 high was June 2016. Our highest ever recorded temperature is 105 in July 1980. The chart below shows that our worst heat/humidity combination is unsurprisingly late July and early August when it is humid or worse  close to 24 hours a day: Upper-level high pressure system in the jet stream (cool and wet North and West, hot and dry Southeast) shown on 500mb jet stream level chart with upper level low pressure out West, the storm-track in between, little change in the pattern next 10+ days: BRACE yourself for much higher than normal energy bills. Triple digit highs on multiple days are LIKELY in Central, East and South Georgia, probably even all-time highs for May. Although the extreme heat  will ease off as we move along further into June, none-the-less the OUTLOOK for the next 6 weeks is for temperatures to average above-normal and for rainfall to average below-normal.  Mind your sunburn prevention safety tips: UV RAYS FROM THE SUN ARE STRONGEST BETWEEN 10AM AND 2PM: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

News

  • A mother duck quacked for help after her ducklings fell into a Pennsylvania sewer Saturday morning. >> Watch the news report here Pittsburgh firefighters and police came to the rescue of the ducklings trapped in the sewer along Kalida Drive in Larimer. >> Need something to lift your spirits? Read more uplifting news  While the ducklings' mother watched, Pittsburgh police Officer Cassie Lee jumped into the sewer and rescued all 10 ducklings. Mom looked to make sure all her ducklings were accounted for and then walked away with her babies. >> Read more trending news  This is the second day in a row ducklings were rescued from a sewer in Pittsburgh. Read more here.
  • A Springfield, Ohio, man who pleaded guilty to killing his neighbor’s dog with a baseball bat in April avoided jail time and was sentenced to community service. Jeffrey Sagraves was ordered to 40 hours of community service and to pay $300 in fines for burglary and cruelty to a companion animal. >> On WHIO.com: Springfield man accused of killing dog with baseball bat He was facing a maximum of 18 months in jail for burglary and 12 months for cruelty to a companion animal. In October, Sagraves called 911 to report that there were two pit bulls in his backyard attacking his cat, according to Clark County Common Pleas Court documents. During the call, he reportedly told dispatchers that the dogs belonged to his neighbor and threatened to kill the dogs if police didn’t show up soon The cat died during the attack, according to court records. >> Read more trending news  Minutes later, a neighbor, Lisa Marie Everhart, called 911 and said a man identified as Sagraves reportedly broke into her home and hit her dog in the head with a wooden bat. She was visibly upset, as well as her young children, who were screaming and crying, according to a court affidavit. Everhart was charged with a misdemeanor for failing to confine her dogs.
  • A heartwarming viral video filmed late last year is making the rounds again – just in time for Father's Day. >> Need something to lift your spirits? Read more uplifting news  According to ABC News, Julianne Cragg of Edmonton, Alberta, was at a Three Days Grace concert in December when she spotted a teen signing song lyrics to a deaf man. 'At last night's concert, we witnessed something absolutely beautiful,' Cragg wrote in a Dec. 13 Facebook post, which included a video of the pair. 'We saw this girl and a man who seemed to require a lot of dancing room, irritating at first until we realized what was happening,' Cragg continued. 'Her father is deaf, she was signing the lyrics to him. We couldn't care less about what was happening on stage, watching them was absolutely mesmerizing. They were both very sweet and her father was very proud of his daughter.' >> Watch the video here The father and daughter were identified as Karri Carberry, 19, and Darrin Carberry, who also are from Edmonton, ABC News reported. >> Read more trending news  'I feel absolutely shocked and amazed at all of the views and responses we have been getting!' the younger Carberry said of the clip, which has been viewed more than 28 million times, in a December interview. 'It’s an amazing feeling and we’re both very happy that everyone around the world is enjoying it so much.' Read more here.
  • A Southern California teen who has been in a wheelchair for nearly a year overcame the odds last week to walk at his high school graduation. >> Need something to lift your spirits? Read more uplifting news  According to KTLA, Claremont High School graduate Alexander Harris surprised his classmates Thursday as he rose from his wheelchair, used a walker to cross the stage and accepted his diploma. >> Watch the moment here The emotional moment came 10 months after a serious motocross racing crash left Harris with a broken neck. 'He couldn't lift his hands to drink,' his mother, Peggy, told KTLA. 'I had to feed him. I had to give him, you know, whatever he needed, and to see where he's at today ...' >> Read more trending news  Although doctors said Harris may never be able to use his limbs again, he remained focused on one goal. 'My first thought was, 'When can I get back walking?'' he told KTLA. Following several months of physical therapy, he did just that. 'Never give up,' he told the TV station. Want to follow Harris’ recovery? You can read more about him and donate to his GoFundMe campaign here.
  • President Donald Trump took to Twitter on Saturday to slam The New York Times for its report that the United States has increased cyberattacks on Russia's power grid. >> Read more trending news  'Do you believe that the Failing New York Times just did a story stating that the United States is substantially increasing Cyber Attacks on Russia,' Trump tweeted shortly after 9 p.m. Saturday. 'This is a virtual act of Treason by a once great paper so desperate for a story, any story, even if bad for our Country.' He continued: 'ALSO, NOT TRUE! Anything goes with our Corrupt News Media today. They will do, or say, whatever it takes, with not even the slightest thought of consequence! These are true cowards and without doubt, THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!' >> See the tweets here Earlier Saturday, the newspaper, citing 'current and former government officials,' reported that the U.S. 'is stepping up digital incursions into Russia's electric power grid.'  The news comes at least seven years after U.S. officials began putting 'reconnaissance probes' in Russia's grid, the Times reported. 'But now the American strategy has shifted more toward offense, officials say, with the placement of potentially crippling malware inside the Russian system at a depth and with an aggressiveness that had never been tried before,' the Times reported, adding that the move is part-warning, part-preparation for launching U.S. attacks 'if a major conflict' with Russia develops. Two unnamed officials with the Trump administration said they did not think the president had received detailed briefings about the U.S. implants in the Russian electric system, according to the Times.  Officials have hesitated to give him the details over worries that he might divulge information to foreign officials or react unfavorably, sources told the Times. Read more here.
  • Hundreds of divers removed litter from the ocean floor near a popular Florida beach – and set a world record in the process. >> Read more trending news  According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, 633 divers joined forces Saturday morning at Deerfield Beach to accomplish the feat, which occurred at Dixie Divers' annual pier cleanup. >> See photos and a video from the event here Michael Empric, a representative from Guinness World Records in New York, attended the event and tallied the participants.  >> Need something to lift your spirits? Read more uplifting news  'Today, I'm the official eyes and ears of Guinness World Records on the ground, so we know immediately whether or not the record's been broken,' Empric told the Sun Sentinel. They ended up breaking the previous record for the largest underwater cleanup, set four years ago by a group of 614 divers in the Red Sea. >> See the Facebook post here This isn't the first time Dixie Divers has broken a world record. At last year's Deerfield Beach cleanup, 386 divers set the record for the longest underwater human chain. Read more here.