MJO moves toward more winter

Will the models continue to show a more favorable pattern mid to late month or will they back off?

I’ve covered the MJO many times in the past. It (MJO=convection-thunderstorms/rising/sinking air over vast areas) impacts the jet stream pattern across the Northern Hemisphere including the tropics so is relevant to both tropical and extratropical cyclones. It’s phases run from 1-8. There are many different ways to track and depict it’s current and forecast state. I won’t show all of them here but I have shown many versions over many years.

LOCATION OF THE PHASES:

The MJO is currently in Phase 7 forecast by most models to go into Phase 8 then 1 but weak by the time it reaches 1. The ECMWF keeps the MJO more in Phase 7 which is a warm signal in the East/SE.

Keep in mind the phase of the MJO is NOT the only driver of weather, many other factors play a role and can mitigate the MJO.

The jet stream blocking teleconnections we monitor also factor in to long-range forecasting. They are progged to become favorable for more winter weather in the East/SE IF, IF the models are correct:

JET STREAM PATTERN WITH MJO PHASE 8 IN LA NINA JANUARY:

How favorable the pattern becomes depends on how deep the trough is, the shape of the trough (hair pin = good, bowl-shaped = not good) and where the trough axis lines up, if the trough, even a hair pin type is too far East it will not help snow or ice in the SE.

So we need the numerical equations to be right about the change in the MJO AND THE TELECONNECTION INDICES first, then we need to see what type of trough we get.

Maybe the models will be wrong about it all, or wrong about parts. Or right about both but the specifics of the jet stream trough don’t work out. Only time will tell.

I can’t get too excited just yet and far too early for specifics. To be continued.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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