Be weather aware on Saturday

Some dry time and dry areas in-between rain and storms

Some heavy rain and some severe weather possible on Saturday followed by a very nice Sunday, and 80 degree temps next week. The next storm risk comes next Thursday or so.

As I write this the severe storm risk tomorrow in the afternoon and early evening looks modest, but that could change so listen for updates on 95.5 WSB Radio. The risk would come in the afternoon and very early evening.

Severe weather is not a certainty Saturday. I think the severe stays to our West and South at least in the morning. The big question concerns how much the air mass can “recover” from the morning round of rain and some thunder for the second round in the afternoon. The morning rain will have a stabilizing effect on the atmosphere.

The models indicate there will be sufficient destabilization of the air mass during the afternoon to allow the approaching jet stream short-wave trough and vorticity max aloft and surface cold front to spark scattered storms or even a squall line. But if the morning rain is more widespread and lasts longer than the models think then there may not be enough breaks in the clouds to aid in the heat energy needed for severe weather, in effect acting something like a weak wedge allowing the severe weather to stay outside of the Metro area especially South. We’ll just have to re-evaluate tomorrow and see how the trends look to update the forecast.

I remind the public that models are SIMULATIONS or “virtual reality” (digital) NOT the real atmosphere which will do what it wants.

The forecast surface weather chart is shown above.

Forecast surface weather chart tomorrow afternoon:

STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK TOMORROW (2 ON A SCALE OF 1-5):

SPC TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:

RAINFALL ESTIMATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AVERAGE TOTALS:

NAM MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 8AM SATURDAY:

NAM MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 2PM SATURDAY:

MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 7PM SATURDAY:

For updates and other info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and LISTEN TO 95.5 WSB RADIO.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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