The Atlanta National Weather Service has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for areas in the blue above until 7pm and a WARNING in the NE corner of the state. I think it’s more precaution than anything else and I believe it will be canceled early.
The Polar Front will move through very quickly today and the coldest air will lag behind most of the moisture so snow should be quite limited in amount and geographic coverage. Rain/snow will only last a few hours at any given point, and a clearing trend will follow mid to late afternoon. Baring any last minute change this should be no big deal for most of us with more rain than snow in the Metro Area.
As I’ve been saying here since last week, cold fronts RARELY produce significant snow in Atlanta and it looks like this one will be true to form, obviously weather sometimes throws a last minute curve-ball so stay tuned in case I am wrong with this one.
The good news continues to be what I’ve been pointing out for days now, temperatures are not expected to fall below freezing until after most areas dry out. So I expect what accumulation there might be, mainly far North and West suburbs, will not cause many problems during the mid-day period, most accumulation on grass, bushes, rooftops and decks. Mainly wet roads before they dry later today. Remember bridges and overpasses freeze first.
I DO NOT expect widespread black ice tonight thanks to drying winds. A hard freeze comes tonight but icy spots should be the exception to an OK road rule.
This front looks like it is becoming more neutral to positively tilted, that means it is weakening and unable to tap the Gulf of Mexico for much moisture and means the “lift” of what moisture exists is weak so it can only produce light amounts of liquid around a tenth to quarter of an inch on average.
The bulk of the light rain falls between 9am and 2pm. HIGHEST RISK of accumulating snow near and North of a line from Cedartown to Dahlonega. Sky sees a clearing trend by 3pm give or take a couple hours.
Temperatures will be falling today into a range of 33-38 between roughly 11am and 2pm. They go below freezing between 5pm and 8pm with lows by Wednesday morning of 20-24. Temperatures Wednesday go back above 32 by 11am give or take an hour.
My forecast continues to be on the low end of what many others have said including the NOAA/NWS groups as seen in maps below.
But I’ll keep an eye on trends in case I am wrong.
NOAA WPC ODDS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AT LEAST ONE INCH:
NOAA WPC ODDS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES:
NOAA/NWS SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATE:
ONE computer model simulated radar snap shots:
ESTIMATED FREEZE LINE (SURFACE 32F) 7PM:
ESTIMATED FREEZE LINE SURFACE AIR 32F 10PM:
ESTIMATED FREEZE LINE 11-MIDNIGHT SURFACE 32F OR COLDER NORTH OF LINE:
WIND CHILL FACTOR (APPARENT TEMP) WEDNESDAY MORNING:
Check back often and listen to the radio for hourly trends and traffic checks. Download the WSB Radio App and Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.