National Weather Service updates outlook for summer

I already posted early looks at the coming summer months ago. I use a different system than the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Weather Service (NWS).

My system uses a variety of data inputs and compares current signs with past history to provide analogues/analogs.

I will have my own summer outlook coming out next month.

For now I’ll show you what the CPC is saying and some international model output.

THESE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY SUMMER OUTLOOKS ONLY. Their official outlook will come out end of May or early June.

The CPC outlook is based only on dynamic computer models and statistical models.

NOAA/CPC/NWS OUTLOOKS FOR MAY AND FOR SUMMER:

CPC PRELIMINARY SUMMER OUTLOOK:

CPC temperature outlook for summer probability for above or below normal. GA shown as a 50% chance of warmer than normal.

CPC rainfall outlook for summer GA is indicated as 50% chance of wetter than normal Southwest and equal odds of wet or dry elsewhere.

INTERNATIONAL MODEL BLEND:

INTERNATIONAL MODEL SUPERBLEND:

8 international models composite summer temps 55% chance of warmer than normal indicated for GA

8 international models blend summer rainfall average summer rain indicated for GA

ANALOG METHOD FOR MAY TEMPS AND RAIN:

Analog composite for May temps Just slightly warmer than normal on average indicated for most of GA

Analog composite for May rainfall average Near-normal rainfall indicated for GA in May

ANALOG METHOD FOR SUMMER TEMPS AND RAIN:

Analog composite summer temps average Near-normal indicated for GA (just a little warmer than normal or just a little cooler than normal)

Analog composite for summer rain average Near-normal indicated for GA (slightly wetter indicated NW/SW)

As of now it looks to me like the real LONG HOT DRY SUMMER will be in California, the Southwest states, Southern Rockies and Great Plains where drought is already a problem.