Weather

National Weather Service updates outlook for summer

By Kirk Mellish

Start of summer less than a month away This solstice marks the official beginning of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, occurring when Earth arrives at the point in its orbit where the North Pole is at its maximum tilt (about 23.5 degrees) toward the Sun, resulting in the longest day and shortest night of the calendar year. (By longest “day,” we mean the longest period of sunlight hours.) On the day of the June solstice, the Northern Hemisphere receives sunlight at the most direct angle of the year.In the Northern Hemisphere, the June solstice (aka summer solstice) occurs when the Sun travels along its northernmost path in the sky. This marks the astronomical start of summer in the northern half of the globe. (In the Southern Hemisphere, it’s the opposite: the June solstice marks the astronomical start of winter, when the Sun is at its lowest point in the sky.)

By Kirk Mellish

I already posted early looks at the coming summer months ago. I use a different system than the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Weather Service (NWS).

My system uses a variety of data inputs and compares current signs with past history to provide analogues/analogs.

I will have my own summer outlook coming out next month.

For now I’ll show you what the CPC is saying and some international model output.

THESE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY SUMMER OUTLOOKS ONLY. Their official outlook will come out end of May or early June.

The CPC outlook is based only on dynamic computer models and statistical models.

NOAA/CPC/NWS OUTLOOKS FOR MAY AND FOR SUMMER:

CPC temp outlook for MAY

CPC rainfall outlook for MAY

Backyard blooms

CPC PRELIMINARY SUMMER OUTLOOK:

CPC temperature outlook for summer probability for above or below normal. GA shown as a 50% chance of warmer than normal.

CPC rainfall outlook for summer GA is indicated as 50% chance of wetter than normal Southwest and equal odds of wet or dry elsewhere.

INTERNATIONAL MODEL BLEND:

International model blend summer temps Slightly warmer than normal indicted for GA

International model blend summer rainfall Slightly wetter than normal for most of GA indicated

INTERNATIONAL MODEL SUPERBLEND:

8 international models composite summer temps 55% chance of warmer than normal indicated for GA

8 international models blend summer rainfall average summer rain indicated for GA

ANALOG METHOD FOR MAY TEMPS AND RAIN:

Analog composite for May temps Just slightly warmer than normal on average indicated for most of GA

Analog composite for May rainfall average Near-normal rainfall indicated for GA in May

ANALOG METHOD FOR SUMMER TEMPS AND RAIN:

Analog composite summer temps average Near-normal indicated for GA (just a little warmer than normal or just a little cooler than normal)

Analog composite for summer rain average Near-normal indicated for GA (slightly wetter indicated NW/SW)

As of now it looks to me like the real LONG HOT DRY SUMMER will be in California, the Southwest states, Southern Rockies and Great Plains where drought is already a problem.

Current drought status

For regular updates and other weather info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

©2022 Cox Media Group

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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