A move up in the “official” start date to the tropical cyclone (tropical storms and hurricanes) season is under consideration. The start of hurricane season has long been June 1st since historically such storms have been rare before June and the peak of the season is not until September 10th based on climate statistics with the main months August-October.

In fact you only have to go back to graphics as recently as 2018 to see May not even listed in showing the season:

HOWEVER, over the past 7 years we’ve seen an uptick in the frequency of tropical systems forming in the first week or two of MAY.

THEREFORE MOVING THE OFFICIAL START OF HURRICANE SEASON TO MAY 1 OR MAY 15TH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

MAY tropical systems tend to be weak and short-lived, but they often form close to land, including the U.S.

The warming oceans are a major reason as once sea-surface temperatures reach 80-82º they are warm enough to support tropical development, when water temps reach these levels earlier in the year than in the past it stands to reason there can be an earlier start to development in at least some seasons.

There are currently NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS for the next few weeks but obviously we’ll keep a look out just in case.

No change has been announced by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or NOAA/NWS for this season but it could happen before next summer.

MAY STORMS MORE COMMON RECENTLY.

The long-term average number of hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean is 6 per season. The current CONSENSUS PREDICTION for this year is 8.

The average prediction so far for this season is for 19 named storms and 8 hurricanes, with 4 of those becoming MAJOR hurricanes:

I put more trust in season forecasts issued in June and after, because before that the state of EL Nino/LA Nina is more difficult to discern.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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