The first heavy rainfall of the year will arrive at the end of this week and continue through Saturday.
An area of low pressure will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Southeast, and this heavy rain will move into northwest Georgia early Friday morning.
For Metro Atlanta, the bulk of the heavy rain will arrive late Friday morning into the early afternoon. The overall storm system will be very slow-moving, so once the rain arrives, it will continue to linger in the region through the next 24 hours.
The Futurecast Radar below illustrates the arrival and slow progression of the rain and storms. This is the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model, which ends approximately 48 hours ahead of time, which corresponds to Saturday morning.
Longer range model data indicates that rainfall will remain through Saturday afternoon, tapering off through the early evening.
How Much Rain Should We Expect?
HRRR model data tends to “underestimate” the amount of rain that moves through, especially if in “real life” a band of heavy rain parks over a region for a relatively long amount of time.
In this case, the HRRR is indicating that 1″ to 2″ of rainfall is likely for the Metro Atlanta area, with isolated pockets of higher rainfall amounts through Saturday morning.
In contrast, the ECMWF “Euro” model tends to overestimate forecast rainfall data, indicating that a few areas in the Metro Atlanta area could receive as much as 4 inches of rainfall through Saturday afternoon.
Looking at the model data, the majority of Metro Atlanta should expect as much as 1″ to 2″ of rainfall, but it’s possible that isolated areas in the Metro area could receive 2.5″ to 4″ of rain.
North Georgia could certainly use the rain -- Moderate to Severe Drought conditions prevail in the region -- but this much rain in a short amount of time will likely lead to flash flooding.
Be mindful of ponding on roadways, and clear out storm drains of left over leaves and winter debris before the rain arrives.
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