Heat will come back

Lower temperatures and less humidity has certainly made things more comfortable the past couple days especially noticeable in the early mornings.

But this is still summertime in Atlanta and we are still in the “Dog days” so it can be no surprise that some heat will return.

As we move toward next week the upper level heights begin to rise as high pressure ridging strengthens along the East Coast with the center of the height anomaly seen over the NE states where it turns much warmer than normal, we will also warm-up here in the Southeast:

GFS model temperature anomaly forecast by Monday

The general pattern is projected to continue into mid-month, BUT nothing too extreme:

GFS model forecast 500mb Friday the 13th

GFS model forecast temp anomaly Friday 13th

AUGUST is a sort of “Meh” in-between month for rainfall in most of Metro Atlanta, more wet East historically:

Green = wettest month, red = driest month

In terms of rainfall forecast it looks below-normal the next 10 days on average, that does NOT mean no rain or that some spot could not get a heavy downpour, it means that MOST days the hit and miss thunderstorms will have less than usual coverage for this time of year. MANY but not all days the chance of a thunderstorm will be less than normal:

GFS Ensemble temp anomaly forecast days 6-16

GFS Ensemble 10-day rain anomaly forecast

HOWEVER, some modeling and the projected MJO into Phase 2 is cooler, suggestive that we may yet again repeat the pattern of the past couple months, in other words the coming heat will just come and go and not lock in for endless days or weeks: