Future tropical cyclone “Sam” next concern

Current Invest98 could impact land

“Peter” needs to be watched for maybe some effects for Bermuda but the other systems are for now all “fish storms” aka out at sea.

However, Invest98 (red-oval future Sam) bears watching in the long-haul.

Near-term, for ATLANTA the big cool down and dry out I first told you about last Friday the 17th is still coming right on schedule.

CURRENT 5-DAY STATUS OF TROPICS:

It is still a big IF as to whether-or-not future SAM can or will have any impact on the U.S. It’s just too soon to tell.

By late next week it could be a threat to the Virgin Islands/Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti areas. Keeping an eye on Gulf including off Texas longer term as well.

ECMWF ENSEMBLE TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY of potential SAM:

As you can see from the “Spaghetti” model tracks ALL BETS ARE OFF for now on the long-term future in early October:

As we get into later OCTOBER we have to watch for not just systems out of Africa (which usually begin to subside) and watch for system formation closer the the U.S. in either the Caribbean/SE or the Gulf of Mexico, especially when Autumn Cold Fronts sink Southeast into those areas and stall out, they can spin-up a home-grown tropical system. This is the whole month average:

Note the rainfall anomaly hints from the ECMWF Ensemble while ATLANTA gets a well earned prolonged dry spell:

After our cool down temperatures gradually recover back to near-normal or a little bit above-normal to end September and start October.

ECWMF ENSEMBLE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ANOMALY:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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