The all too familiar “wedge” pattern or Cold Air Damming (CAD) develops this weekend as we get the squeeze play between high pressure to our Northeast and low pressure moving in from the west in the active sub-tropical jet stream. The above surface weather chart is for the first half of Saturday.
The bulk of the precipitation will hold off until late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning with more intermittent scattered light rain or drizzle Sunday afternoon into early Monday.
As long-time followers know you never let your guard down on a wedge. They are too capable of last minute surprises on temperature and precipitation-type.
As of now I think Metro Atlanta gets a cold rain... any brief SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN far North and East suburbs (Pickens-Hall County and adjacent areas) would not last or matter if it happens at all.
For the Far Northern and Northeast Georgia mountains a dusting of snow and a tenth inch of ice before changing over to just rain Sunday afternoon and evening.
But monitor my forecast on the weekend in case things change!
FORECAST SURFACE WEATHER CHART END OF DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:
SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE CHART:
See the PivotalWeather Forecast Skew-T thermodynamic diagram sounding profile Pickens to Lumpkin to North Gwinnett Counties Saturday night (riding the line):
What I think at this point:
So for now I think any sleet if any at all would not last or matter for the Metro, but will keep an eye on the area near and north of dashed green line just in case, and monitor to see if those lines shift.
Please remember the dead horse I’ve been beating for 30 years, the lines we show you are not magic walls in the sky but a transition zone of about 30 miles North or South.
For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and download the WSB RADIO APP.
WPC WINTER GUIDANCE:
NGM Model is an outlier and is discarded for now but can not be dismissed out of hand and shows why we must monitor data for changes: