Preliminary research is underway to make a long-range outlook for the coming winter.
The various versions of the Farmers Almanac are already out with theirs.
Long time followers know it’s hard to get it right when making a seasonal forecast just one month before it starts so I don’t put any stock in outlooks this early (we are not even in calendar autumn yet for goodness sake).
But we’re all curious and I always start the process once Summer is over and then try to narrow it down by December 1st.
So as mere curiosity here is what the first and all too early look is showing from both analog method and climate models.
It’s interesting to note some similarities with the current IRI climate models suite:
The North American Model Suite (not as up-to-date) on the other hand is quite warm:
The joy and ease of the Almanacs winter “forecasts” is they just give general words, no specific numbers are given that can be graded later!
FARMERS AND THEIR ALMANACS, STARTED IN 1818 AND 1792:
They strongly agree that this winter in Georgia will be a COLD ONE.
One says wet, the other does not say if it will be wet dry or normal, it just says whatever falls will be a mixed bag of everything. OK then. The one that says wet does not say how much snow or ice or if wet is all rain? OK then.
In case you forgot LAST WINTER there was just a dusting of snow in a few areas but not everywhere, here is the average temp/precip for LAST WINTER:
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