Changing weather pattern coming

You’ll feel the humidity coming up first, then the rain chance returns

After that long period of high humidity and showery weather we had, this long dry spell of beautiful weather we’ve been enjoying was predicted well in advance, but of course it can’t last forever.

Fronts and troughs of surface low pressure are projected to move into our region and linger for days as an upper level “cut-off” low pressure system forms to our West and moves slowly East under a “Rex block” (high over low) develops in the jet stream pattern over the U.S. putting our area in a moist Southwesterly air flow. MAPS BELOW.

The chance of rain starts going up Sunday afternoon but is low, with the higher rain chances coming next week. Temperatures will remain above-normal but nothing extreme.

At least a couple more tropical storms or hurricanes are expected in October and/or November as the active season continues with a weak LA NINA on-going. Both the Caribbean basin and Gulf of Mexico will have to be monitored for tropical trouble into the start of November. The La Nina SO FAR this year looks about half a degree C weaker than last year at this time.

We will likely run out of regular names again this year and move on to the alternative list. Wanda is the last name this season, and the first name on the alt list is Adria:

FOR OCTOBER the temperatures look to be a little warmer than normal on average, with rainfall near-normal to a little above-normal.

FOR NOVEMBER the temperatures look to be near-normal to a little cooler than normal on average, with rainfall below-normal.

Humidity goes up first, then the showers come back over the next 10 days:

OCTOBER CFSv2 model:

Although we BEGIN OCTOBER with an average highs that are still warm by the 15th of October the average is down to 75/55 and we END OCTOBER with the average down to 69/49.

By the half-way point of NOVEMBER the normal is 64/44 and the END OF NOVEMBER the normal high and low drop to 60º/41º.

A very early look at favored jet stream storm tracks for the WINTER suggest a ridge of high pressure (+) on or off the West coast and a ridge into the Southeast from a center off the SE coast and in the Caribbean (+) with high-latitude blocking near Greenland (+), more on that to come in future blogs.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.


Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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