The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a few tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, including Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Two.
PTC Two is anticipated to gain a closed center of circulation Tuesday, as maximum sustained wind speeds strengthen above 39 mph.
At that point, it would be named Tropical Storm Bonnie, and it would be the second named storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Below is additional information from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
...DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 56.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 56.5 West. The system is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern
Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and
Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.
Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
Unusually south path
The path of PTC Two/future “Bonnie” is unusually south, and it will move over the northern coast of South America before making landfall in Central America.
Along the way, the tropical system may potentially move over the island of Aruba. The last storm to pass within 50 miles of Aruba was Hurricane Tomas in 2010.
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