A weak cold front will approach Tuesday (map above) followed by a “wedge” pattern (CAD) with fair weather high pressure wedging down the lee of the Appalachian Mountains funneling in even drier air and helping to lower temperatures some with some clouds from the NE/E air flow as the week goes on (maps below). The chance of rain is not zero but it’s much lower than normal the next 7 days and most of us will stay dry with temperatures a little more Fall-like by the end of the week, especially at night with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs lowering to the low to mid 80s.

7-DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL ESTIMATE:

ATLANTA NWS FORECAST DISCUSSION:

PivotalWeather maps of precipitable moisture (total moisture content) LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

PRECIPITABLE (PWAT) MOISTURE FRIDAY:

THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GO THE NEXT 10-16 DAYS:

Conflicting signals for the end of this month and for October, split between more heat and dryness or cooler and wetter.

OCTOBER ANALOGS TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL:

For those of you new to following me “Analogs” are past years that match characteristics to current or recent conditions thus providing a template for possible future weather. (whats past is prologue)

OCTOBER CFSv2 MODEL TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL:

I favor near-normal temperatures to a little above for October on average (warm and cool spells alternate) with below-normal rainfall on average unless a tropical system hits.

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