Trends for October

Up and down, back and forth to continue

To this point September temperatures have averaged near-normal to slightly below, with rainfall above-normal:

LAST OCTOBER:

Was warm and wet

It looks like our back and forth up and down pattern of September will continue with a cooling trend to end September and open October with some below-normal temperatures but no frost or freeze yet:

For the MONTH OF OCTOBER the European Model is warmer than the American numerical variants, but they agree on drier than normal:

The analog years come in with near-normal rainfall and much warmer than the models. I have my doubts about the warmth, if that were to happen it would have to come from significant warmth in the second part of October since the start will be biased cooler:

I think the odds favor drier than normal (unless we get impacted by a tropical system) with temperatures near-average to a little cooler than normal for the month as a whole, not every day or every week but the average for the 31 day period.

If we do get a cooler outcome in October this year it will go against the trend:

We have to monitor the Caribbean and near Atlantic/Gulf for tropical cyclone genesis as we get deeper into October, the wave train from Africa is largely shutting down now.

LEAF CHANGE THIS NOW:

COLOR CHANGE FORECAST SUNDAY OCT 4TH:

Foliage maps SmokeyMountains.

For daily updates follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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