Peeking at some winter outlook parameters

It is way way too early to make a winter forecast, but it is the time to start gathering the data on parameters that will feed into an outlook in the months ahead.

As of now there is quite a stark contradiction in first signals.

Seen below is the result of near-record strong trade winds and early behavior of hurricane season this year that line up with these analog years with past similarities.

On the other hand, the LA NINA and the QBO argue for a more zonal jet stream displaced closer to Southern Canada with a Southeast upper-level ridge. A positive or Westerly QBO phase is a warmer winter signal as is the strong La Nina.

Westerly or +QBO winter jet stream and temperature correlation:

In La Nina winters the SE ridge is stronger and more persistent in years with a Westerly or +QBO as we have currently.

Also the SOLAR CYCLE condition now and as projected is similar to 2010 which also had similar PDO/AMO patterns as this year along with a 3rd year La Nina also like this year.

Multivariate Enso Index (MEI):

Winter of 2010:

So we have multiple contradictions on the winter temperature pattern based on the earliest data signals. Much more to come in the months ahead. However, these earliest signals do agree on winter being on the dry side. But again NONE of this is a forecast, it’s just a look at the earliest tea leaves for the winter ahead.

The NWS/NOAA/CPC outlooks and most broadcast mets only use El Nino/La Nina to make their winter outlooks whereas I look at dozens of factors.

I can tell you that all of them will predict a winter like this:

BOTH FARMERS ALMANAC’S are forecasting a brutal harsh winter for most East of the Rockies:

For more frequent updates follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish






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