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Old man winter is still out there lurking
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Old man winter is still out there lurking

Old man winter is still out there lurking

Old man winter is still out there lurking

Old man winter is asleep on the Southeast but he’s not dead yet. 

We have more rain and more unseasonably warm weather ahead in the coming week (temps 18-26 degrees above-normal) as the cold front that brought the severe weather Saturday stalls out and then drifts back North as a warm front through Tuesday before another cold front moves through on Thursday that will bring back noticeably cooler weather to end the week 50s and 30s and the downward trend will continue next week.

It will turn colder in the medium to long-range period and we may have to monitor another strong thunderstorm chance somewhere along the way in the transition, after a marginal risk of a strong thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon or night.

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Old man winter is still out there lurking

5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATE:

1-2 inch rain totals are expected by the time the week ends on AVERAGE, with isolated 4 inch totals possible for localized flooding. 

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500MB JET STREAM FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY:

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An arctic air mass is seen in Southwest Canada while a broad mild Southwest to Northeast jet stream flow is seen for much of the U.S. below I-80 including an active  sub-tropical jet flow across the Southland. 

However, there is mounting predictive data supportive of a change to a pattern that will support periods of colder weather back to normal highs and lows for dead winter or even some spells of below-normal roughly January 19 into early February with some milder spells in-between but not nearly as warm as recently. 

But given poor model performance for many months I will not jump on any long-lasting frigid air yet. 

None-the-less the “Modoki El Nino” atmospheric behavior continues and the MJO is forecast into more favorable phases and there is consensus among the various numerical variants for a pattern flip with +PNA West Coast ridging in the jet stream pattern and a -EPO which can deliver colder air and is the opposite of the upper-air flow pattern we have now seen in map above. 

The +IOD in the Indian Ocean area and the MJO in the West Pacific have kept the U.S. pattern mild to this point, but changes are afoot as seen in the WxBell Charts:

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Weather has cycles and they typically last on the order of 45 days or so sometimes 60 before changing, we are getting close to that from the last chillier jet stream pattern in the U.S that occurred in November and early December after the warm autumn so that fits.

Likewise current data suggest stratospheric warming over the North Pole another signal of pattern change and the warm sea-surface “blob” persists beneath Alaska in the NE Pacific. 

The analogs continue to be supportive of a flip in the pattern since there is precedent in past warm winters to end noticeably colder, as recently as 2015 for example.

That has been a common theme of many winters in the 2000s with February and March and I think we’ll do it again as the SE upper ridge gets beaten back down and squashed out of here with the change starting next weekend and increasing in the weeks beyond.

So January 17-27 is a transition period it probably won’t happen overnight but it looks like the pattern will flip and last in on and off fashion into March. 

Any snow or ice threat unlikely through Jan 21 but final 11 days of this month OR next month can’t be ruled out. Confidence highest I-40 or a little South but I-20 or South not off the table. 

I am just saying winter is far from over, it’s just too early to cancel it. 

But keep in mind I am not predicting anything because specifics that far out in time are not scientifically valid so I don’t do that. 

IF if and when there is something stronger to say I will. 

I try to be right not first to mention snow or ice, this is not supposed to be a game of look at me.

I don’t get extra pay for blogs or tweets or Facebook so I don’t seek attention or likes, retweets, shares or forwards. Nothing in it for me. I also consider unscientific long-range hype to be unethical and unprofessional. 

But data is mounting that at the very least  we are going to change to at a minimum more neutral conditions in the key teleconnections to one that allows at least the possibility of something to occur in that time frame, maybe maybe January 24th give or take a few days but odds are highest I-40 North not I-20 but nobody can be sure this far out.

So let me reiterate it’s not a forecast for any snow or ice because that can NOT be known this far in advance by anybody or any gadget.

KEY TELECONNECTION LOCATIONS:

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I am simply saying a “window of opportunity” as I like to call them may be opening as we end January and continuing at times next month and first half of March. 

I do not yet see any EXTREME cold however so far, nor do I see weeks of non-ending cold.

The global numerical prediction models projected pattern flip MJO and GFS ENSEMBLE 500MB JET STREAM:

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Old man winter is still out there lurking

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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  • A North Alabama police officer said he was placed on administrative leave following complaints about two social media posts, including one that mocks the late George Floyd. Ross Greenwood, an officer with the Mentone Police Department, said he was put on leave pending the outcome of a termination hearing, AL.com reported. Greenwood said he was not told who complained about his posts, but Mentone Mayor Rob Hammond confirmed the administrative leave to the Fort Payne Times-Journal. Greenwood said he shared two posts that received complaints. One, posted June 14, noted that the “Treasury Department will honor George Floyd by placing his portrait on the $20 counterfeit bill.” The second post, made on June 19 read, “Breaking News: Quaker Oats officially changes name to Shaquille O’atmeal.” Floyd is the Minneapolis man who died May 25 after a police officer put his knee into the man’s neck for nearly nine minutes. Greenwood said he left the posts on his Facebook page because he wanted to be transparent, the Times-Journal reported. He said he does not believe he did anything wrong, and said he “absolutely” enforces the law equally. Hammond said Mentone Police Chief Gene McKee met with town attorney Pat Tate to discuss his investigation, the Times-Journal reported. “It is the Town’s contention that these postings are a violation of the Mentone Police Department’s code of conduct,” Hammond told the newspaper, adding a termination hearing would be held “within the next 10 days.” Greenwood, who has been with the Mentone Police Department, previously was the chief of police in nearby Sylvania. “In my opinion, (Floyd) was a criminal. He’s sure made a name for himself,” Greenwood told the Times-Journal, adding he was unhappy with the news of several products changing their branding because they play off racial stereotypes. “A lot of this has gotten way out of hand,” Greenwood told the newspaper. “What’s the standard of what we can share on social media? I’ve never targeted or threatened to kill anyone.” “If some radical Christian shot up a church, I’d share a story about that as much as I would if a radical Muslim did,” Greenwood told the Times-Journal. “I’m prejudiced against people who do stupid things. I can’t help what race you are when you mess up. I do post a lot of stuff about minorities and may post some stuff that looks racist, but there’s got to be some standard. Innocent people are getting killed.” Greenwood said he had asked for a copy of the police department’s social media policy but never received it, AL.com reported. He also said he never signed any papers documenting that he agreed to any department social media policy. “There’s something on Facebook that’s going to offend somebody,” Greenwood told AL.com. “There’s posts going around of police officers getting their throats cut. That offends me. But I don’t get out of shape. I just think, ‘Wow, that’s pretty rough.’”
  • A Black family has sued Hilton and a North Carolina Hampton Inn franchisee, alleging discrimination after a white clerk called police regarding a billing dispute. Dolores and Alvin Corbett, along with their two teenagers, checked in to The Hampton Inn & Suites on Nov. 23, 2018, in Wilson, North Carolina, along with some extended family. According to a news release provided by attorney Jason Kafoury, the family was there to “celebrate the life” of Alvin Corbett’s mother, Fannie Corbett, who died in 2019 and was declared a “civil rights pioneer” in North Carolina, The News & Observer reported. The following morning, the suit alleges, the unidentified clerk loudly and repeatedly told Dolores Corbett that her credit card had been declined. Corbett tried to explain that she had prepaid for the $145-per-night room using her Hilton Honors account points, but when she asked to speak to a supervisor, the clerk shouted, “Get off my property” and alerted police. Dolores Corbett told USA Today the humiliation and degradation suffered warranted the lawsuit, but the clerk’s summoning of police “put our family in imminent danger.” The family checked out immediately and told officers they had done nothing wrong when they arrived. And even though the clerk conceded to the responding officers that the billing question had been resolved, the suit alleges the officers escorted the Corbett family from the premises and circles their car in a restaurant parking lot while they waited for their extended family to join them, USA Today reported. Meanwhile, the Corbetts’ attorneys shared with the publication an email from the hotel’s general manager, Phil Ronaghan, dated one day after the 2018 incident, offering his “sincerest apologies” and calling the clerk’s actions “unprofessional and unwarranted.” Ronaghan also said in the email the unnamed clerk told them she called police because she felt threatened, but he did not feel the situation rose to “anywhere near that level of dispute” and noted that she had been reassigned pending an internal review of the incident, USA Today reported. In response, Hilton spokesman Nigel Glennie told the newspaper, “Hilton’s records show that our guest assistance team worked to resolve this complaint in 2018. We believe that our Hilton team engaged with sensitivity to understand, listen and address concerns about the guest’s experience.” According to The News & Observer, the suit seeks damages to compensate for the plaintiffs’ “economic loss, humiliation, embarrassment and emotional distress” as well as punitive damages that would punish the defendants’ alleged “willful, wanton, and reckless conduct” to prevent similar incidents in the future.
  • Deputies in an Oregon county were in the right place at the right time this week, saving two lives in the same spot on two different days. Shortly after 11 p.m. on Monday, Washington County deputies received a call that a 16-year-old girl was at the top of a parking structure across the street from the Sheriff’s Office in HIllsboro, KATU-TV reported. Deputies were able to coax the girl, who was allegedly preparing to jump, away from the outside railing, the television station reported. “There’s a lot of grief associated with the loss of normalcy with what youth are doing right now and the connections to their peers,” Emily Moser, director of the non-profit YouthLine, told KGW. Moser’s job has taught her a lot about how teens are trying to make sense of a world that doesn’t make much sense right now. “The uncertainty that they’re feeling is very much in the here and now,” she said. On Tuesday, deputies responded to the same area, as a woman in her 30s was standing on the top of the parking structure, KGW reported. “I received a phone call from a coworker who was driving home and she told me there was a subject on the top level of a local structure that was outside the barrier,” Commander Caprice Massey told the television station. When Massey arrived, she tried to engage with the woman by talking to her. “She starting signing in American Sign Language and she preferred to communicate that way, and as luck has it, I know sign language,” Massey told KGW. Massey was able to talk the woman back over the barrier without saying a word. “I asked the young lady if she would sit with me and we sat pretty close to each other,” Massey told KGW. “Just take the time to check in with people and when you ask ‘How are you?’ wait for the answer.”
  • Two Oklahoma police officers have been charged with second-degree murder nearly one year after the death of a naked Wilson man last Fourth of July weekend. According to the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation, Jared Lakey, 28, died July 6, 2019, after officers Joshua Taylor and Brandon Dingman discharged their stun guns on him more than 50 times, WXII reported. The incident occurred just before midnight on the Fourth of July after Taylor, 25, and Dingman, 34, responded to a call of a naked man running down a Wilson street screaming. “The two Wilson police officers were trying to take Lakey into custody, and he was not cooperating. He was not complying with their requests,” OSBI public information officer Brook Arbeitman said, according to the arrest affidavit. According to court documents, an OSBI agent reviewed dash and body camera footage of the arrest, The Ardmoreite reported. “The footage reveals numerous instances of both officers using their X26P tasers to send electrical shocks through (the victim’s) body in an apparent attempt to persuade him to put his hands behind his back as he lay on the ground,” the agent stated in an affidavit. Court documents indicate Dingman discharged his stun gun 23 times for a total of 114 seconds over the course of nine minutes, while Taylor deployed his stun gun 30 times for a total of 122 seconds. Despite sustaining nearly four minutes of electrical jolts, court documents state Lakey never struck, grabbed or made any aggressive attempts toward either officer during the nine-minute confrontation, WXII reported. The affidavit also states neither officer attempted to restrain Lakey during those nine minutes, despite several opportunities and the fact that Lakey was not fully conscious. “(The victim) is tased numerous times while merely lying naked in the ditch, presumably for not rolling onto his stomach and complying with the officers’ commands to ‘Put your hands behind your back’,” the affidavit states. Court records state Lakey died of “complications of myocardial infarction (clinical) in the setting of cardiomegaly and critical coronary atherosclerosis and law enforcement use of electrical weapon and restraint,” The Ardmoreite reported. The arrest warrants for Dingman and Taylor were issued Wednesday, and both officers surrendered to the Carter County Sheriff’s Office Thursday morning, WXII reported. Both men face 10 years to life in prison if convicted, and both were granted $250,000 bond.
  • What is more important -- global health policy, or where to display a unicorn drawing? That was the pointed issue confronting a BBC broadcaster on Monday, who was interviewing Clare Wenham, an assistant professor at the London School of Economics. Of course, the unicorn won out Wenham, speaking virtually with Christian Fraser, was about to answer a question about the United Kingdom’s response to the coronavirus pandemic when her daughter, Scarlett, entered the picture, The New York Times reported. The young girl can be seen walking back and forth in the room, trying to decide where to put her drawing. When Wenham finished her answer, Fraser asked, “What is your daughter called?” “She’s called Scarlett,” Wenham said. “Scarlett, I think it looks better on the lower shelf,” Fraser said. “And it’s a lovely unicorn.” As Fraser started to ask another question, Scarlett interrupted. “Say, what’s his name?” the child asked. “What’s his name, Mummy?” Fraser had a good laugh and quipped, “This is the most informative interview I’ve done all day.” Wenham told the BBC it was ironic that her interview had been crashed. She said she recently wrote an article for the British Medical Journal on that topic. Wenham conceded, however, that she never thought that scenario would happen to her. Reaction was mostly positive, with Twitter users complimenting both Wenham and Fraser. “Wonderful to see the realities of homeworking for parents,” Heather de Gruyther wrote. “And thank you to the presenter for making it OK and for talking to the child too.” The interview was similar to a 2017 clip that went viral when Robert Kelly, a political-science professor at Pusan National University in South Korea, was interrupted by his children and wife during his interview with the BBC, the Times reported.
  • A naked man was rescued from a sewer in downtown Duluth on Thursday, officials said. Officials in the northern Minnesota city said first responders pulled the man to safety around 5:10 p.m., KBJR reported. It was not clear why the man was naked, or why he was in the sewer. The rescue comes after authorities received a report about a man who had entered a manhole Wednesday afternoon, the television station reported. The man’s clothes were found near the manhole, city officials said. After ending their search Wednesday, first responders returned Thursday after receiving a report about a man yelling for help from under a manhole cover, the Duluth News Tribune reported. Firefighters lifted the manhole and found a man “visibly in distress,” according to a news release from the city of Duluth. Firefighters placed a ladder down the manhole. The man, who has not been identified, was able to climb out, the News Tribune reported. He was taken to an area hospital, where he was treated for hypothermia, the newspaper reported.