A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS as shown above. Tropical Storm Warnings issued in blue.
As per my blog this morning AND THE ONE back on Monday the tropics were something to keep an eye on this week and sure enough here we go with the first of probably two or more threats.
We are at peak season right now.
Keep in mind since there is NOT yet a defined low pressure center the forecast track is likely to be less reliable than normal for now.
Also the system could well be around far longer than the 5 days shown in the NHC map above!
Below is all of the tropical systems SO FAR this year, not counting the incipient ones we are monitoring currently:
The MJO Phase 8-1 provides favorable conditions across the Atlantic and Caribbean into October with positive large-scale mass upper level divergence, i.e. rising air motions.
If the system near the Bahamas gets named Humberto it would be an earlier than average date for the seasons 8th storm, the average being September 20th.
Let me repeat, the future path AND intensity of this system are presently highly uncertain. To quote the National Hurricane Center experts: “more so than usual”.
Some statistical observations from Dr. Phil Klotzbach of CSU:
On average about HALF of all Atlantic hurricane seasons have at least two hurricane landfalls on the U.S. lower 48.
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