Weekend winter system is 4,000 miles away

Which is why making a specific forecast for Saturday night-Sunday is not possible

It would be scientifically unsound to show any kind of snow/sleet/ICE/Rain map this far out, in another 48 hours forecasters should have a better idea and can issue some early guesstimates.

Those who have been reading my blog posts from before Christmas know the signal has been around for a long time. Now there is energy in sight (still out in the Pacific Ocean) but there is NO surface low pressure storm to track YET. As of now that is just a figment of the imagination of numerical equations so to speak.

However, there is strong agreement across all global models of some sort of system developing from that North Pacific energy as well as energy out of Alaska merging and moving it SOMEWHERE across the Southeast and East Coast late this weekend. While it does NOT guarantee anything I must say it’s really the strongest multi-model agreement on a possible winter low forming that I’ve seen in many years.

It looks good on paper-digital (for now anyway) that there will be snow/sleet of some UNKNOWN amount and location, just can’t say where or how much or exactly when or where it will just be rain at this distance. FACT. Facts are stubborn things.

IF, IF we take the model consensus at face value then it is a legit threat for much of North Georgia and adjacent states with a hybrid Miller A-B system.

But in the days ahead that consensus on the models could and likely will change in some way or another.

FAR FAR AWAY as of Tuesday...

Below look at a variety of global models projections (virtual reality) that show the broad agreement on some kind of system, but with disagreements as well, hence the uncertainty:

That’s pretty dang strong good general agreement from the model variants for that far into the future! It says that at least as of this writing the chance of winter precip is legit anywhere in the North half to 2/3rds of Georgia. God only knows and only time will tell.

Now we wait to see if that agreement falls apart in the days ahead.

Christina Edwards on WSB Radio will have your daily and 5-day forecast on-air and online at wsbradio dot com.

Connect with me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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