Polar Vortex disruption expected due to Stratospheric Warming event

Impacts the jet stream flow but it takes time

I’ve already done blogs and Tweet posts about this for a couple weeks now if you missed reading them.

“New” to news people and the general public, the first reference to the circumpolar vortex in scientific literature dates back to 1853.

Like everything else in weather no two are ever exactly alike but they can be similar.

It takes time for the effects of things above the North Pole 68,000-85,000 feet to work their way down to the atmosphere and then to spread out away from the pole, it can take 2-4 weeks to impact the jet stream and weather in the U.S. especially as far South as Georgia.

Sometimes the cold and snow dumps into parts of Asia or Europe INSTEAD of America.

Sometimes the effects happen sooner than usual sometimes later than normal.

So for now it just opens a window of opportunity and gives meteorologists something to monitor for how this one may play out in January and February.

As far as the key indices go for cold and snow in the East third of the country, the AO/NAO are favorable and expected to become much more so, the PNA is neutral but expected to become more favorable, the MJO is neutral with no big change expected for now, but the WPO/EPO are UN-favorable for winter weather, they favor warmer than normal East of the Mississippi River, so there is a weather influence fight going on between Atlantic Ocean blocking and warmer Pacific Ocean influences for now.

So in the short and medium term our thermometer roller coaster ride we’ve been on for many months in a row will continue.

STRATOSPHERE PV:

Next 10-Day GFS SNOW FORECAST:

Much of Fall and Winter so far the weather has behaved more like El Nino RATHER than the LA NINA we have. Last winter we saw the opposite with an El Nino acting more like a La Nina. More of the “weather weirding” we’ve seen for a couple decades now.

For daily info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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