Computer models continue to struggle beyond a few days

Challenging forecast times continue

As a warm-up comes the next thing we will watch for will be chances for heavy rain or thunderstorms ahead.

Nothing of concern the next three days.

It is clear that much of the country from I-40 Northward is going to have some tough sledding the rest of this month into March as the SSW events push the jet streams South with a train of storm systems traveling along on the leading edge of the cAK air mass arctic motherlode edging down out of Canada in the weeks ahead.

The air mass pushing into the Northern USA originated in Siberia at the end of last month:

If any can make it into the Southeast is still up in the air.

The extra large disagreement on temperature trends continue in the 5-15 day range as the numerical equations continue to change radically from run to run and day to day on if or when truly cold air ever makes it to Georgia.


The CMC model has a cold bias so I would ignore that one for now and take more of a blend of the other two global models U.S. and European TFN.

ANALOG BASED TEMP OUTLOOK FEB-MARCH:

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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