WASHINGTON — Early voting is significantly outpacing the last midterm election, with millions more Americans casting ballots in advance and particularly sharp increases in states hosting competitive Senate races, according to an Associated Press analysis of voting data five days before Election Day.
The surge is especially pronounced in Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House and governor's races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50% increase.
Advance voting has also increased more than 30% from the same point four years ago in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, states with competitive Senate races. In South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, early voting is up 83%.
Data comes 5 days before Election Day
The data, compiled by the AP, offers a glimpse of early voter participation five days before an election that will determine control of Congress and other key contests.
Across the country, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots, nearly 10 million more than in 2022. The figures cover 47 states and Washington, D.C., compared with 48 states and the nation's capital four years ago.
In states that provide information on voters’ party affiliation, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have cast ballots early. Those figures do not account for all early voters nationwide or indicate which candidates received their votes.
The increase comes as voters prepare to decide control of Congress two years into President Donald Trump’s second term, with Republicans holding the House and the Senate.
A Texas-sized turnout
Voters have turned out in droves during Texas’ two-week early in-person voting period, which ends Friday.
In Harris County, which includes Houston, 862,700 people had voted as of Wednesday, compared with 564,500 at the same point in 2022.
The surge comes in a county that has reliably voted Democratic in recent elections, though by varying margins. In 2024, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump by nearly 6 percentage points in the presidential contest, while Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred carried the county by roughly 11 percentage points over Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
This year, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a closely watched Senate race, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking reelection against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have poured into the Senate race as Republicans fight to defend a state where Democrats have not won a statewide election in more than three decades. Trump visited Texas earlier this week, his third trip to the state in a month.
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