The calendar says mid-October, but it seems summer received an extension!
Metro Atlanta just experienced the remnants of the latest hurricane on record for the Atlantic Basin, which formed on October 6.
One week later, a heat wave gripped the area and sent afternoon highs into the upper 80s -- breaking daytime temperature records set in the 1950s.
El Niño summers are known to suppress hurricane development as well as generate extended heat waves.
But what can Metro Atlanta expect as it heads into an El Niño winter?
Cooler than Average Temperatures, Wetter than Average Precipitation
Overall, the Southeast U.S. -- including Metro Atlanta and North Georgia -- can expect a cooler and wetter season this year compared to more typical winter seasons.
This cool, wet pattern is due to a southern jet stream moving over the Gulf Coast states and bringing more frequent storm systems to the Southeast U.S., including Georgia.
As storm systems move through more frequently, cloud cover will be a more frequent occurrence. As a result, temperatures trend cooler than average during a Southern El Niño Winter.
But is it cold enough for... snow?
Cooler than average may mean a difference of a few degrees each day, which means the Metro Atlanta area may endure rainy days in the low 40s -- a disappointing rain, versus a “fun” snowstorm.
And while there is a greater probability for precipitation during an El Niño winter, the difference between a rainy winter and a snowy winter cannot be summed up with El Niño.
Other shorter term teleconnections -- “far away patterns” -- need to be in play, including the following:
- Arctic Oscillation (AO) -- negative phase opens the door for Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern half of the U.S.
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -- negative phase means colder air for the Eastern U.S.
- Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) -- positive phase means colder air for the Eastern U.S.
The AO, NAO, and PNA teleconnections alternate from negative to positive phases on a 7 to 10 day time frame. If the negative phases of these patterns occur during winter, they can usher in a Cold Air Outbreak (CAO).
With El Niño bringing more precipitation to Southeast -- including Metro Atlanta -- there are more opportunities for these Cold Air Outbreaks to convert the liquid to wintry precipitation. However, it is not a guarantee, so while I can confidently say this winter will be wetter than average, the amount of snowfall this year is still highly variable!
What happened during previous “strong” El Niño winters?
El Niño is the presence of warmer than average ocean water located along the equator in the Pacific Ocean.
These warmer than average sea surface temperatures span from the coast of South America to as far west as the International Date Line at 180°W.
The animation below illustrates the sea surface temperature anomalies for the previous 12 weeks (July 22, 2026 through October 7, 2026) and is a classic example of an El Niño.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipates this year’s El Niño to continue through winter and into spring 2027, with some signals that indicate that this may be a “very strong” El Niño, similar to the seasons of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.
These two winter seasons can be used to analogs to gain a picture as to what to expect this coming winter.
Winter 1982-1983
The Winter 1982-1983 season featured 2.4 inches of snowfall in the Metro Atlanta area. By comparison, the average rainfall in Atlanta during December 1 through February 28 is 1.8 inches.
The season also featured 13.31 inches of rainfall. By comparison, the average rainfall in Atlanta during December 1 through February 28 is 13.71 inches.
Averaging the overall daily highs and lows during the Winter 1982-1983, the average temperature for the season was 44.9 degrees. This is cooler than the average temperature for an average December through February timeframe of 46.9 degrees.
Winter 1997-1998
The Winter 1997-1998 season featured 0.6 inch of snowfall in the Metro Atlanta area. By comparison, the average rainfall in Atlanta during December 1 through February 28 is 1.8 inches.
The season also featured 17.98 inches of rainfall. By comparison, the average rainfall in Atlanta during December 1 through February 28 is 13.71 inches.
Averaging the overall daily highs and lows during the Winter 1997-1998, the average temperature for the season was 45.2 degrees. This is cooler than the average temperature for an average December through February timeframe of 46.9 degrees.
When was the last time Atlanta had a “good snow”?
I see quite a few comments that Metro Atlanta is due for a “good snow”, which I will define as a seasonal snowfall total greater than 1.8 inches.
In that case, the Winter 2024 -2025 was the last time Atlanta experienced heavier snowfall totals. That winter, a whopping 3.2 inches of snow fell during the season, and all of it fell in the month of January.
However, that winter featured a La Niña, illustrating that trends are not guarantees for a seasonal outlook!