Days with warmer than normal temperatures will continue to be fleeting IF the numerical equations are right about the jet stream patterns projected the next 6 weeks.
Models show the core of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV or PV) sinking South toward the Great Lakes in the final days of this month:
500mb (about 18,000 feet) Jet stream prognostication above.
The models are indicating that, relative to normal, the coldest departures from normal in the ENTIRE Northern Hemisphere at 500mb will be located over North America at that time!
It's too soon to know just how far South bitter cold air will make it in terms of specific numbers beyond 5 days but it looks brutal in the Midwest and Northeast.
If the numerical variants are in the ballpark, there continues to be no reason to think we get an early Spring. LAST February if you forgot turned remarkably warm, ridiculously warm really, before we turned cold again in March into April. Looking ahead...
Here is a presentation of some temperature guidance from model connected CIPS analogs days 7-14:
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE ZONE:
Temperatures below freezing well into Florida again:
Hinting at lows in the Teens possible into Georgia again, could eventually be much lower:
Here is presented the ECMWF “Weekly” 500mb Jet Stream forecast (WxBell charts):
Remember that doesn’t mean every day or every week is cold, those are 7-day “chunk” averages of the jet stream. Life and property threatening record-breaking cold in parts of the North from a “lobe of the Polar Vortex” yes, end of the world no.
Ice/snow in Atlanta? As I've already discussed in prior blogs there is a process for looking for that and you need specific systems AFTER you get a supportive pattern. Well, the pattern is projected to take shape and last a good while. Now we wait and watch.
It’s not unusual for something to suddenly pop up with little notice. It’s also common for models to show something then take it away then bring it back then take it away over and over again. So keep calm and don’t panic, we are in the heart of winter but we are also IN THE SOUTH.
ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE: (green-gray box shows possible RANGE*)
* For example above, on Jan 30th the model is saying the high that day could be 35 or only 15, the low could be 29 or 12. These are called “box and whisker” plots. It’s a math and science thing.
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