The next 10 days temps in most areas will not be too far above or below the normal of 66/46 for this time of year, averaging warmer than normal the next 6/7 days.
But after NEXT Friday we may have another brief spell of cooler than normal weather 3/24-3/30 give or take and with above-normal rainfall for the entire period the next 10-days (some dry days also) with waves of precipitation and risks for strong thunderstorms or even severe weather from time to time the rest of this month. Tis the season.
This is consistent with our current location in the PDO cycle (negative) and the ENSO cycle, currently in a La Nina base state in the Pacific.
The most similar 5-year mean match to PDO is 2008-2013. Tornado counts (national total) tend to go up in -PDO conditions and La Nina in spring.
UPCOMING PATTERN 250MB JET STREAM TO REPEAT REST OF THE MONTH IN THE MEAN:
MORE UP AND DOWN THERMOMETER PATTERN:
PASSAGE OF FREQUENT FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PROVIDE THE VOLATILITY FOR TEMP SWINGS, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO APRIL:
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS:
CFSv2 MODEL SUPERCELL STORM RISK:
TORNADO AND HAIL MATCHES TO TOP 10 ANALOGS FROM THE PAST:
LA NINA SPRING AND SUMMER TENDENCY:
WEIGHTED ANALOGS FORECAST TEMPS/RAIN APRIL/MAY BY MATCHING ENSO (ONI) AND RECENT SYNOPTICS:
CURRENT SUMMER ANALOG BASED TEMP/RAIN OUTLOOK:
The outlook for the summer will of course need to be updated in the months ahead. How the rest of spring plays out will impact any needed changes for the summer.
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