Signs of more normal, less extreme summer pattern

Short and medium-to-long-range indicators

1 day every 5 years on average The recent two-week heat wave failed to officially register 100 for Atlanta

By Kirk Mellish

If we can’t have a cool or comfortable summer, I’ll settle for typical rather than super hot.

The record threatening temperature pattern is gone TFN and it looks like we have a period of more run-of-the-mill heat and humidity coming for an extended period of time, with of course the usual day to day and week to week variations where some are better than others. But I’ll take that over a long spell of hot humid and mostly rain-free like we just experienced.

I’ve been talking for months now about things playing out this way and at least SO FAR, the expectations I outlined still seem plausible.

Forecast at my place in NW suburbs sees lower high temps and at least some periodic rain chances next couple weeks:

10-Day at my house in far North Cobb County BAMwx

USING A COMBINATION OF ANALOG METHODS AND COMPUTER MODELS LOOKING FORWARD WE CAN SEE THE SUBTLE PATTERN ADJUSTMENT:

Then and now but not for long

Analog method 500mb forecast

Analog forecast average of all July days

Analog forecast of extremes mid to late July

Cooling demand July average still high in bright colors Monthly average energy demand based on analogs

Analogs July average rain anomalies

Euro mean temp forecast June 25-July 25

Euro model average temps June 23-August 8th

GFS model average temps June 23-July 28

Euro model forecast 3-week rain anomalies

Rain may pick up after first week of July.

Euro model forecast 32 day average rain anomalies, not real wet but better

GFS Extended model forecast 500mb jet stream pattern Worst record heat continues shift N+W

Heat ridge location variance Commoditywx

Euro model ensemble forecast temp departure Commoditywx

So no, not cool and not wet the rest of summer on average, but trending better and starts next week, even this weekend to some extent.

The average for the rest of summer average is still above on temps and below on rainfall totals.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.