We just saw above-normal temperatures to 70º after a January with below-normal temperatures on average but a lot of up and down.
The major global models in the long-range are split between forecasting a return to above-normal temperatures for the back half of February that locks in place through the coming summer (American GFS/European ECMWF models) or more of a continuation of back and forth up and down through at least March if not most of spring (Canadian/Australian/Japan models) but with the warm spells obviously stronger and longer than the cold snaps.
Given the fading but still lingering La Nina, I’ll go with splitting the difference but with a lean toward the second scenario: 🌡🎢
The main reason for the model war is that they differ considerably on their forecast of the MJO convection seen in the DARK COLORS colors in IR satellite image below. The MJO right now is in Phase 3 to 3.5:
MJO is an enhanced area of convection in the tropics that progresses from West to East every 4-5 days and circumnavigates the globe every 30-60 days on average and has a large influence on our weather.
[ MJO. ]
Currently the MJO is trying to leave Phase 3 and projected by some models to move through 4 and into 5 longer term (you can see India NW of the box and Australia SE of the box:
FORECAST OF THE MJO BY VARIOUS MODELS:
So some models want to keep the MJO in the colder Phase 3, while others move it into warmer phases 4/5 or into the null or neutral circle as we get into March.
FAVORED TEMPERATURE REGIME BY MJO PHASE:
FAVORED PRECIPITATION PATTERN BY MJO PHASE:
As a rule I find the Australian, Japan and India models do a better job with the MJO than the others, most of the time anyway.
When MJO convection increases in the Eastern Indian Ocean (Indonesia) this usually results in a jet stream ridge over the Eastern U.S. roughly 13 days later aka Phase 4 or 5.
MEANWHILE, the weak La Nina continues. Here is the latest forecast for ENSO:
SPRING in a La Nina has a bias toward an active and early start to severe weather season, especially to our North and West particularly with a -PDO as we also have now:
An example of this is expected THIS WEEK with heavy rain 1-2 inches on average with isolated higher totals possible:
LA NINA TENDENCIES IN SPRING:
So yes when we get warm spells they will become stronger and longer lasting naturally as we move through the next couple months and the cold snaps weaker and shorter, but I don’t think we will see above-normal temperatures every day or every week from here through Summer, I think there is more up and down to come through March at a minimum and maybe April as well but as I said the warm periods will be stronger and longer.
If the GFS and ECMWF model ensembles are right then another shot at snow is done until next winter.
Nonetheless the outlook for March and for the Spring as a whole, in sum does favor above-average temperatures with precipitation near-average to drier than average.
Now that I am retired blog posts here will be few and far between, follow me on Twitter for more frequent weather comments at MellishMeterWSB.