Long-range outlook

Looking ahead through August to winter

Any weather forecast parameter has a wide range of possible outcomes Many weather outcomes are possible as model projections demonstrate

By Kirk Mellish

U.S. population-weighted CDDs (cooling degree days--a measure of A/C demand) tracking hottest on record for meteorological summer-to-date, edging ahead of 2018 and 2020.

Average summer temperatures so far Commodityweather

Percent of normal rainfall last 60 days

AUGUST TEMP AND RAIN OUTLOOK ACCORDING TO BEST ANALOG YEARS:

August outlook based on best analog years mean temps 31 day average temps not every day or every week

Average August rain according to best analog years Mean month rainfall anomaly not every day or every week

Here is an outlook for the three autumn months averaged together using the constructed analog (CA) method:

Autumn outlook from CIC constructed analog method ClimateImpactCo

The same method looks ahead to the coming winter. It weighs LA NINA heavily. We do not know for certain we will have La Nina this winter, although that IS the current outlook. However, other factors could come into play in the months ahead that may alter the impact of La Nina even if there is one this winter so keep that in mind.

Very early look at winter from constructed analog method ClimateImpactCo.

The NWS also leans on La Nina to make their outlooks.

Here is the NOAA/CPC Winter Outlook:

NOAA climate prediction center winter outlook

Long time followers know when I make a long-range forecast I use multiple factors not just La Nina or El Nino.

For more insights follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.