This blog is about the big picture for the second half of January and maybe February. I will cover the end of this week and early next week on the radio 95.5 WSB and later in a separate blog.
A very different type of prevailing jet stream pattern than we’ve seen in 3-10 years has been established and looks to continue or increase the rest of this month.
As I indicated in a couple of previous blogs the SSWE above the North Pole in the Stratosphere is doing its thing to push for winter weather, first in Asia and Europe but according to model guidance slowly increasingly in the U.S. as we move further into January.
A +PNA, neutral EPO, -AO/NAO, active STJ and multiple short-wave disturbances lined up in the Pacific heading East.
This SSWE (Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event) Polar Vortex looks like it will be a split-type:
Initial snows of course usually hit to our West and North first before the odds rise for a greater part of MS/AL/GA/SC can come along.
Keep in mind this forecast pattern, if correct, merely “sets the table” or provides a window or multiple “windows of opportunity” for snow or ice in Georgia including Metro Atlanta. THERE ARE NO IMMINENT STORM THREATS OF ANY *significance* FOR ATLANTA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS I WRITE THIS.
However, I have seen in the past the models be slow in seeing a system once the jet stream pattern is ajar for something to come in, the door is ajar but there are no guarantees we get a winter storm.
I DO NOT currently see any bitter record cold for the South yet, no time soon anyway. But temperatures will average below-normal.
As a result of jet stream change the model shows the SOURCE of air mass changes for a good chunk of the country:
Air mass changes:
Stay tuned as we say.
For daily weather info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.