Hot NW, here warm then getting warmer than normal

Some model hints for the rest of this month

Gulf of Mexico water running warmer than average

By Kirk Mellish

After the refreshing weather, even some chilly days the expected warm-up is underway.

It looks like it has staying power, although we have to monitor Friday-Saturday for a cooler risk if the low coming in from off the SE Coast is stronger than models realize.

ECMWF Ensemble 500mb jet stream forecast

Dates are listed on the maps below.

ECMWF Ensemble temp departure from average forecast

This does NOT mean NO RAIN for the days and weeks ahead.

It just means an extended period of warmer than average and rainfall less than average. Not every day will be hot and we can still get a thunderstorm with enough humidity or if a “NW FLOW regime” develops following the Friday E/NE flow from a coastal low coming inland.

ECMWF Ensemble temperature output

ECMWF ENSEMBLE % RAINFALL OUTLOOK 6-15 DAY FORECAST AVERAGE:

Euro ensemble % of normal rainfall ClimateImpactCo

GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOK 16-20 DAY AVERAGE:

GFS Ensemble temp and rain 16-20 day outlook

The above maps show the sum mean over 5 day chunk periods.

To me the potential for any “tropical mischief” before May is finished is still very iffy. We could also get one more cooler than normal air mass by the time the month is done.

Multiple model blend temp forecast guidance IF, IF we get a high of at least 90 BEFORE the end of the month then it would be an earlier than normal occurrence.

7-Day rainfall forecast estimated amounts

Over the next 7 days the rainfall odds look low and the amounts small for most of Metro Atlanta and much of Georgia...most of us stay dry.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.