I have four relatives staying with me who evacuated from Southwest Florida (Port Charlotte area) between Sarasota and Ft. Meyers.
They started to think about leaving when they were only under a Tropical Storm Watch!
They voluntarily left BEFORE any evacuation orders based on the forecast at the time, even though at the time the worst was thought headed closer to Tampa. Their area was under a hurricane WATCH at the time they decided to leave-- as the path of least regret.
Turns out it was a good decision. Individual personal responsibility and making good choices (freedom) is important in life. Darwin is our friend.
For days on end the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and every other meteorologist emphasised the higher than normal uncertainty in the final destination of the storms center but that a powerful dangerous strike on the West FL coast was likely. They and the media were accused of “hype” and “scare tactics” on social media for using phrases like “life-threatening, catastrophic, unsurvivable” etc.
The other point of emphasis on HURRICANE Ian, as it is WITH EVERY SINGLE STORM, was that officials and the public should focus on IMPACTS.
Focus on IMPACTS and NOT on the track line and NOT on the cone. People either understand the English language or they don’t.
The best forecast and the best communication doesn’t matter if the public fails to understand words and fails to act on those words.
Local evacuations are handled at ground level by the states, counties and local towns. Both first and final decisions are made by individuals. Common sense is lacking by many and there are consequences. In the information age an understanding of how weather and weather forecasting works and what it can and can not do can be obtained by the age of six of older but it requires effort.
Wilful ignorance does damage and can even kill.
Here are excerpts from Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science:
Water not wind is usually the most destructive and deadly aspect of tropical storms and hurricanes and these IMPACTS can and do occur OUTSIDE of the “cone of uncertainty” (cone of past error). This message has also been beaten like a dead horse for decades. When you refuse to listen to the message, do not blame the messenger.
Hardest hit areas were under weather bulletins for storm surge inundation and hurricane warnings days in advance. The specifics were updated at least 4 times a day.
NHC FORECASTS:
[ Better safe than sorry with threatening weather. ]
Bottom line, “officials/authorities” and some of the general public made choices and many were bad ones.
Shifting forecast tracks is not unusual, it is normal and expected and must be factored in to decision making.
Almost 6-DAYS IN ADVANCE:
UGA’s very own makes a great point:
The many who say “you guys are never right, you guys are always wrong”, also simultaneously say “why was this forecast not perfect, why was it off some?, I am shocked” lol That takes some kinda special moron.
The answer is no, get away.
For frequent weather commentary follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.