After our long dry spell and big warm-up following the pre-Easter freeze another change is on the way as the pendulum swings back.
Rain chances return Thursday through Saturday. An isolated strong storm possible Thursday or Friday and a severe thunderstorm possible Saturday. Details to be determined so stay tuned. Does NOT look like anything dramatic right now.
I do see lower temperatures in the medium range and below-normal temperatures in the longer range, but so far at least I do not see another freeze for the next 15 days, although that could change.
The jet stream pattern becomes more active and changeable in the days and weeks ahead going from a W/SW flow to a W/NW flow aided by the return of a -NAO and a massive Greenland/East Canada “Rex Block” (upper high over upper low).
But a frost is at least possible beyond the 20th but it’s too far out to know. I don’t see it as of now.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES:
ANALOG SYSTEM TEMP ANOMALY FROM GFS ENSEMBLE DAYS 7-13:
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