SEVERE HURRICANE DARIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PART OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY
Tropical Storm WATCH posted for part of Florida East Coast.
It is the very slow motion of Dangerous Darian thanks to weak and chaotic almost non existent “steering currents” that make forecasting the future track of the storm maddeningly difficult.
Too many subtle influences both near the storm itself, in the Atlantic and Caribbean, on the U.S mainland and as far away as Alaska and Japan that will have an effect on the eventual outcome. An unusual situation to be sure. (Courtesy weathermodels):
BOTTOM LINE... (A) at least for the moment it can be said that confidence has grown that Florida will be spared a “direct hit” of the eye and any worst-case scenario but can still feel a significant impact. However this is not a sure thing.
(B) Preparations must continue because any small last minute forecast adjustment would not leave them time to prepare. The same is true of Georgia and the Carolinas even though CURRENT indications are the storm will pass just offshore of those states as well AND weaken as it does so!
(C) Thanks to the slow movement NO ALL CLEAR can be given for anyone yet. Although the Gulf of Mexico seems the least likely place for it to end its journey.
PLEASE read all prior blog posts on the subject of Dorian if you missed any as I try not to repeat too much background info already covered.
Many twists and turns and shouts still probable. Can’t rule out a farther North landfall yet even if it does miss Florida. (StormVista map):
This is true for ALL of the Georgia coast and Florida, too. Currents, swells and waves will only worsen in the days ahead.
OFFICIAL NHC OUTLOOK:
Cool stuff...
Notice how the air in the eye of the storm is as dry and clear and North Georgia this afternoon!
That’s a black eye you don’t want. Also remember that when we refer to a storm being a “Category (Cat) X” that is based solely on the maximum sustained winds around that SMALL eye, the REST of the storm does NOT have winds that strong. This is why the devil is in the details for impact at any given point in OR near it’s path whether onshore or not.
[ Click on this to click and explore a mature storm structure. ]
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