Don’t let your guard down if you see just rain Tuesday.

“You do not wake up to a winter wonderland,” says WSB meteorologist Kirk Mellish.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

A winter storm warning is in effect for all of metro Atlanta and for 2/3 of the state of Georgia until 7 a.m. Thursday.

“My best estimates are 2-to-5 inches of accumulation of snow and sleet in metro Atlanta with a half inch or more ice where it starts as rain,” says WSB meteorologist Kirk Mellish. “Some far north and east suburbs could get more than five inches of snow/sleet. The mountains could see anywhere from 6-to-10 inches.” These are storm TOTALS by Thursday morning, not all falling today. The big factor becomes a cripling ice storm Wednesday with potential for damage and power loss in some areas, says Mellish.

But these are early estimates for a complicated system.

“Timing, location and amounts will change in future forecasts,” says Mellish. “The smallest difference of temperature at surface or aloft will mean a big difference in what falls.”

The snow started falling in the north Georgia mountains around 3 a.m., while metro Atlanta was just seeing rain. Mellish says there won’t be any major impact for many in Atlanta through most of the day on Tuesday, with the biggest risk north of 285.

But wherever you end up on Wednesday is probably where you will stay for a few days.

That’s when the “significant” precipitation moves in. Temperatures will drop to or below freezing tomorrow.

It’s all over by Thursday afternoon though. Partly cloudy skies move in and temperatures will break 40. But temps will fall back to around 30 – below freezing – Thursday night.