Winter outlook remains the same

The above map is a bit esoteric, it’s a map of average “Heating Degree Days” for December through March. It’s used in the energy industry to measure heating demand for the coming winter 2018-2019. Blue areas indicate HIGHER than normal energy demand and the yellow to red indicates BELOW NORMAL demand for heating during the winter.

If you missed my first issuance of the winter outlook in the early autumn I discussed all the factors of science investigated to estimate the coming winter. I will not going over it all again. Suffice to say that ocean temperature patterns across the northern hemisphere play a large part in the assessment along with the solar cycle.

Indications point to a +PNA +TNH and a neutral to +NAO style winter with an active sub-tropical jet stream pattern.

I found slightly over 30 “analog years” that were a match in some way or another to various signals from the past and present that may point to the future going back to 1888 and as recent as 2016 and 2017. I subjectively weighted those to find the strongest consensus and best matches to come out with composite outlook maps.

For those who have been silly enough not to be following my outlooks for over a decade you may not be familiar with all the research that goes into finding analog years or what that term means. To simplify it, it assumes what’s past is prologue. Of course mother nature never repeats itself exactly, but like history while it may not repeat precisely it does often rhyme.

I add the caveat that long-range forecasting is still in its infancy. It has been measured as better than a guess but only by a little.

Like they say in the financial investing world: “Past performance does not guarantee future results”.

All signs point to a winter in Atlanta that will feature below-normal temperatures on AVERAGE (not every day or every week) and precipitation above-normal on AVERAGE (not every day or every week). The odds of significant snow and/or ice this winter look well above-average.

If anything has me worried it’s about how consistent the signals are. Usually there are many conflicting indicators.

The outlook is versus the climatological period 1981-2010.

WINTER TEMPERATURE AVERAGE ANOMALY DECEMBER-MARCH: