What models are showing for the coming winter

My own winter outlook will come out next month

As long time followers know I don’t always agree with numerical models when I make my official winter outlook. Or any other forecast for that matter even short-term.

Long term climate history tells us that significant snow is not a regular occurrence here. 2 inches is the long-run Atlanta official average. Having little or NO SNOW is actually typical for the Metro, the norm. Periodic aberrations and recency bias make people think otherwise.

The models agree on this being another LA NINA WINTER, making it the second La Nina winter in a row or a “double dip”.

But the La Nina is just one of many climate/weather drivers and no two are ever exactly alike.

It also depends on how strong the La Nina becomes, a strong one historically is the warmest. Weaker ones have often produced plenty of winter cold in much of the country.

The model consensus as of now is for a weak to moderate La Nina during the winter that becomes neutral by March.

INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ENSO FORECAST:

MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST:

INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE WINTER TEMP ANOMALY FORECAST:

INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE WINTER PRECIPITATION FORECAST:

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO ENSEMBLE MODEL:

AUSTRALIAN BOM ENSO FORECAST SUMMARY:

VARIOUS MODELS SSTA FORECASTS AND THE IRI WINTER TEMP/PRECIP FORECAST:

NORTH AMERICAN MODEL ENSEMBLE WINTER TEMP AND PRECIP ANOMALY FORECAST:

INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE WINTER TEMP/PRECIP FORECAST:

CANADIAN MODEL WINTER TEMP AND PRECIP:

EUROPEAN MODEL WINTER TEMP/PRECIP ANOMALY FORECAST:

JAPAN MODEL WINTER TEMP/PRECIP FORECAST ANOMALY:

MULTI-MODEL BLEND WINTER SNOWFALL FORECAST ANOMALY BY MONTH DEC,JAN,FEB:

Remember, just because models show something and it looks convincing “on paper” that does not mean it’s set in stone. Computer models project “virtual reality” we only know true reality AFTER THE FACT.

AREAS SHADED IN YELLOW ARE WHERE THE MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SOME SKILL, RED IS WHERE SKILL IS HIGHEST:

NOAA/CPC WINTER TEMP AND PRECIP ANOMALY OUTLOOK:

Remember models update anywhere from every week or two to once a month as new data is ingested.

MY OWN winter outlook will be coming up, stay tuned.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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