Weather

Weather regime shift continues to look possible for January

It’s a waiting game to see when the models are able to latch on to the larger scale broad indicators for a jet stream pattern change to more winter for much of the country East of the Rockies next month. So far they show it then pull it away, mostly favoring continued warmth for the SE USA.

It is hardly unusual for any real winter weather here to hold off until the January-March time frame. We’ve had a few in December but they are more freakish.

But the signals discussed in my prior blog post continue, in fact, seem to be mounting. Thus I am less skeptical we will see a regime shift for at least a time next month as the MJO moves into phases 7-8-1 with a pretty rare dual high-latitude blocking pattern (Alaska-Greenland) suggested in the global modeling.

IF it really does so, it will open a window of opportunity for winter temps and just maybe winter precipitation even in the deep Southeast. No details are scientifically possible this far in advance. But at least ducks on the pond seem to be lining up.

But just where and how big the cold and winter storms will end up can’t be known just yet. But January certainly looks like it could get interesting for many in the country as the sub-tropical jet stream activates a Southern active pattern and the Northern Polar Pacific jet stream shifts equatorward. Meanwhile:

A precursor CAD event will be possible next week! Details TBD. For now I would expect a cold rain for Metro Atlanta early next week.

Please KEEP IN MIND, this is the time of year when irresponsible people post and share snow/ice maps they don’t understand on social media to stir up trouble and hype. Don’t fall for it and don’t share, unless it’s from a known source you trust.


For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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