Surface weather chart ABOVE for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Over the next three days depending on where you live in North Georgia the forecast has rain, thunderstorms, sleet and snow or some of each. South of the airport just rain.

The rain will add up over the next few days but no flood watches posted as of now. 3-day rainfall totals of 2 inches on average with higher totals in some spots.

Best chance of snow accumulation in the Far North mountains Thursday.

Notice we have a good “Miller A” pattern on low pressure track but means nothing if insufficient moisture or depth of cold air.

IF any flakes make it into Metro Atlanta they are not expected to matter the way it looks as of now. But we all know (most people do anyway) that weather and forecasts can and do change so check back for updates just in case.

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

ATLANTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLASH FLOOD WATCH:

SURFACE WEATHER CHART WEDNESDAY:

SURFACE WEATHER CHART THURSDAY 7AM:

FLOOD OUTLOOK:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL (AVERAGE) TODAY AND TONIGHT:

JUST ONE MODEL PROJECTION THURSDAY 1PM:

MODEL OUTPUT 7PM THURSDAY:

MODEL PRECIP TYPE OUTPUT 10PM THURSDAY:

Folks, I am showing you just ONE model here. ONE out of 7-8 dozen. They all show different things. But models are virtual reality, not actual reality. No one model is the answer key. In fact all the models can be wrong but in different ways. Models are guidance NOT gospel.

Mother Nature will do what she wants. If the job was easy we’d always be right.

There is not just one forecast delivered by different sources.

BEST THURSDAY SNOW AMOUNT ESTIMATE ANALYZING MORE THAN ONE MODEL:

Our crazy temperature roller-coaster ride continues along with the active jet stream pattern I showed you in my past blog post Monday morning. 

It is too soon to focus on any snow accumulation amounts, but I will say that as I write this early Tuesday morning I think any real accumulation stays in the Mountains where I don’t forecast. But stay tuned in case that changes. (Some people think parts of the mountains are “Atlanta”)

MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.