Up and down, back and forth weather pattern continues rest of the month

Jet stream changes and tropical systems the keys

Weeks ago the long-range blog post here talked about this yo-yo pattern of both temperatures and rainfall, so far it’s been on track.

It also looks like it will continue the rest of the month as previously expected.

For those who are unfamiliar with 80 year old weather map conventions, a quick mini primer:

“Warm colors” (yellow-orange-red etc) indicate above-normal temperatures or jet stream levels. “Cool colors” (blues-purples) represent below-normal temperatures of jet stream levels.

Likewise the “warm colors” indicate higher than normal pressure and “cool colors” lower than normal pressure. Or simply highs and lows.

You often find the primary mean (average) jet stream flow in-between these pressure areas and in-between the corresponding air masses.

Shades of brown indicate drier-than-normal precipitation, shades of green represent above-normal precipitation. Read the legends on the maps for specifics as we are taught in grade school and high school.

The next 5 days are mostly warmer than normal and dry. The following 5 days are generally cooler than normal and also dry taking us into Tuesday October 20th.

All maps below are the Ensemble of the American GFS Model. The map legends and labels tell you what is being depicted. I’ve drawn arrows on the jet stream maps (technically 500mb ~18,000 feet heigh level anomaly).

We start this week with a warm “zonal” West to East pattern, then get a jet stream dip or trough with cooler NW flow, then the jet stream “relaxes” back to a more zonal flow again:

The tropics look to be more quiet the next 10 days but there are signals that there will be AT LEAST one more tropical cyclone before we can close the books on the season.

For daily updates Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish


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