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Unstable air mass again today
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Unstable air mass again today

Unstable air mass again today

Unstable air mass again today

The visible satellite image from around 26,000 miles in space shows yet another Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) to our West at sunrise today heading in this direction, the radar presentation below:

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rad

These MCS usually “peter out” before reaching us (because they leave their source generator behind as they move East away from it and enter different more stable air mass).

But importantly, they also send out an “outflow boundary” ahead of them. Plus thunderstorms in our area yesterday will have left some “outflow boundaries” in our area. Think of these as ‘mini-cold fronts’ which often are invisible to our data net until mid day or late afternoon. 

New thunderstorms often form along these old outflow boundaries. Yet at other times the ‘cold pool of air’ behind an outflow boundary can stabilize the atmosphere and prevent storm development. So you can see these patterns are tricky sons of guns. 

For this reason it’s not unusual for the thunderstorm odds to end up much higher OR much lower than expected the day before or even at the start of the day compared to reality. 

Frequently at the end of the day a cluster or line of storms will become concentrated in one area where all the “outflow boundaries” end up, leaving the rest of the area high and dry. I’ve seen that the past three days across the Northern two-thirds of Georgia. 

I expect today will have plenty of dry hours before and after any thunderstorm even if you do get one. Some places can get hit hard or twice while another place nearby gets brushed by a light shower or doesn’t get a drop. NOT every thunderstorm will be severe!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is putting us in the STANDARD risk for storms with damaging winds and hail with a RISK LEVEL OF 2/5:

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spc

So with a potentially unstable air mass in the heat and humidity of the afternoon we can expect scattered showers and storms to pick up and a few may be heavy or severe, but like the past three days some places can get pounded and others don’t get a drop. 

Here’s a radar estimate of thunderstorms yesterday and last night:

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rad

I’ve pointed out hundreds of times in the past on the radio and in blogs that UNLIKE other forecasts, SOME types of THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS must be updated every 2-4 hours. Because of the mixed plus and minus factors I explained in the text above. 

The type of thunderstorm forecast that does NOT have to be updated every two hours or show are the types that involve a specific well-developed “synoptic-scale” front or upper-level disturbance. 

Then it looks like a little less humid and a little more stable air mass tomorrow and Wednesday so MOST of us will stay hot but storm-free on these days. 

After that the typical summertime Atlanta pattern of hot and humid with scattered afternoon or evening thunderstorms and a mix of sun and clouds resumes Thursday through next weekend and probably into early July. 

For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and on the radio at WSB AM750 and 955FM, or download the WSBRADIO APP here.  

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News

  • Kenny Dixon, the longtime drummer for Georgia-raised country music star Kane Brown was killed in a car accident, the band confirmed Sunday. >> Read more trending news  Dixon was from Dalton, Georgia. It's unclear where the crash happened but his bandmates say he died Saturday. 'It is with profound sadness and disbelief that we confirm we lost our drummer Kenny this weekend in a tragic car accident,' the band wrote in a statement. 'Kenny was a member of our family from the very beginning, and our hearts are with his fiancée Sarah, his son and everyone who knew and loved him. He was truly one of the greatest and kindest people on and off stage we’ve ever known.” Dixon's fiance, Sarah Hendrick, also confirmed the musician's death in an Instagram post on Sunday. 'I’m at a loss of words. I don’t even know how to write this or ever thought I would have to. Kenny passed away last night in a car accident. I know I have to be strong for Levi and God is gonna pull us through this. We have a forever guardian angel watching above us now. Please keep Levi, my family, and Kenny’s family in your prayers,' she wrote. Dixon and Hendrick were set to wed Nov. 30 in Dalton, according to the couple’s wedding website on The Knot. They were parents to a son, Levi. Brown also commented on the drummer’s death on social media.
  • A former University of Georgia student pleaded guilty Friday to running a Ponzi scheme that defrauded investors, including fellow students and their families, from his Athens fraternity house. >> Read more trending news  Syed Arham Arbab, 22, of Augusta, admitted to defrauding 117 people in a scheme that attracted about $1 million from investors, prosecutors said. A news release said Arbab spent funds on clothes, shoes, adult entertainment and gambling trips to Las Vegas. “The defendant engaged in a pattern of deceit to gain the trust of unwitting investors who gave him their hard-earned money for what they believed was a sound investment,” Charlie Peeler, U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Georgia, said in the release. From May 2018 to May of this year, Arbab sought investors for Artis Proficio Capital Management and Artis Proficio Capital Investments. Prosecutors said Arbab issued false account statements and misrepresented the size of the funds and returns. Among his false claims, prosecutors said, Arbab said a former UGA athlete and NFL star was among his investors. Arbab pleaded to a single count of securities fraud. He is scheduled for sentencing in January. In late May, the Securities and Exchange Commission initiated a civil complaint against Arbab, which is pending. In June, a federal judge froze Arbab’s assets and those of his investment funds. At the time, the SEC alleged Arbab defrauded at least eight investors of $269,000, but warned that the size of the scheme could be larger. In text messages, Arbab allegedly told investors his firm was “different because we target young investors/college kids,” and he charged lower commissions, the SEC complaint said. Arbab allegedly told investors he guaranteed investments of up to $15,000. The SEC said Arbab also sold “bond agreements,” which were like loans. Instead, Arbab allegedly deposited funds in his bank account and used new proceeds to pay off previous investors who sought money. A bio on the website for Artis Proficio stated that Arbab graduated cum laude from UGA with a degree in cellular biology, and that at the time, he working on a masters of business administration at UGA’s business school. Prosecutors said Arbab had in fact been rejected from the MBA program at UGA’s Terry College of Business.
  • When Stoneham firefighters arrived at a two-alarm fire around 12:30 p.m. Saturday, a woman living at the single-family home was on her roof overhang escaping the flames. >> Read more trending news   Stoneham police officers instructed her to jump from the overhang, and she was caught by Stoneham police officers Stephen Aprile and John Burton. She was the only person at the home at the time of the fire. 'Today marks the last day of Fire Prevention Week and the theme for this year covered how important it is for people to have an escape plan to get out of their home,' says Stoneham fire Chief Matthew Grafton. 'The resident who was at home at the time of (Saturday's) fire is an excellent example of someone who knew to find an available escape route and got herself safely out of the house as quickly as possible.' The fire was in the kitchen on the first floor and smoke was billowing from all windows. Crews from the Woburn, Melrose, Wakefield, Winchester and Reading fire departments helped on scene while Saugus, Medford and Malden firefighters helped with station coverage. Firefighters prevented the flames from spreading to the rest of the house, but the home sustained heavy damage from smoke and water, estimated at $150,000 to $200,000. The family of six who lived at the home is being helped by family and friends in the area. One dog was rescued and taken to a vet for evaluation. The cause of the fire is under investigation.
  • The final day of the Atlanta Air Show is canceled after a pilot ejected from a plane Sunday afternoon. The airshow began Saturday and was scheduled to continue Sunday afternoon at Tara Field near the Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton.  >> Read more trending news  Capt. Kevin Domon-Grenier, a pilot with the Canadian Forces Snowbirds, ejected from his aircraft shortly before the squadron was due to perform, the Snowbirds announced on Twitter on Sunday.  Domon-Grenier’s CT-114 Tutor crashed prior to the show’s opening, Airshow officials said. He made it safely to the ground and is OK, the CF Snowbirds said.  Nobody was injured when the plane crashed in an unpopulated area, according to the Snowbirds.
  • New Birth Missionary Baptist Church plans to redirect a donation it received from rap artist Kanye West to Atlanta’s Morris Brown College, officials said.  Rev. Jamal Harrison Bryant on Sunday announced a financial contribution to the HBCU’s general scholarship fund, according to a New Birth spokesman.  The announcement came during the 9:30 a.m.  church service. Bryant, senior pastor of New Birth in Stonecrest, said the funds  will be used to make a financial contribution in honor of the Grammy Award-winning artist’s late mother Donda West, who previously served on the faculty at Morris Brown.  The size of the donation wasn’t immediately announced. Morris Brown College has struggled financially since losing its accreditation in 2002. Only a few dozen students attend the college, down from as many as 2,700 in the mid-1990s. Among Historically Black Colleges and Universities, it is the only one in Georgia founded by African Americans. Kevin James, the college’s interim president, told New Birth’s congregation Sunday that Morris Brown was approved Friday as a higher learning institution by the Nonpublic Postsecondary Education Commission. He called it a “major step” toward accreditation.  “When you lose your accreditation, you close,” James said during the Sunday service. “But for some reason, for the past 17 years, Morris Brown College has been able to survive. We will be the first historically black college in history ... since 1837 to actually come back and be fully accredited under these circumstances.”   Kanye West visited New Birth Sept. 15 for a popup Sunday performance as a part of his “Sunday Service” series. Lines waiting outside New Birth began forming several hours before the service. RELATED: Kanye West brings ‘Sunday Service’ to Atlanta West has been making such appearances on Sundays this year, including one in Dayton, Ohio, to help that community in the wake of a mass shooting and on Easter Sunday to bring a message of faith to those attending the music festival Coachella. The announcement from New Birth came a day after West brought his Sunday Service series to Howard University, a prestigious HBCU in Washington, D.C.  It also came weeks after West defended his endorsement of President Donald Trump, whose support of HBCUs has been mixed.  MORE: HBCUs and Trump: up and down relationship “I went into prayer, and it dawned in me in prayer that Dr. Donda West, who was the mother of Kanye West, is a former professor at Morris Brown College,” New Birth’s Bryant said during Sunday’s service.  Donda West started her teaching career at Morris Brown College as an English instructor in the 1970s, and later became the department chair, according to an obituary. “I know what Dr. Donda West represented while at Morris Brown, and her mind for African American literature, was to empower, equip and engage students to be something radical that can change community and change society,” Bryant said.  In other news: 
  • Robert Downey Jr.'s first film since leaving the Marvel Universe still involves CGI, but of the animal variety. The former Iron Man is the title character in Universal Pictures' 'Dolittle.' It's the latest movie version of the story about the doctor who can communicate with animals. >> Read more trending news  Antonio Banderas appears to have a role in the film as an antagonist to Dolittle, while Octavia Spencer, Kumail Nanjiani, Ralph Fiennes, Emma Thompson, John Cena, Selena Gomez and Downey Jr.'s Marvel co-star Tom Holland lend their voice talents. Downey Jr. executive produces the film, which will be released Jan. 17, 2020. Watch the trailer below.