SURFACE WEATHER MAP MID DAY FRIDAY ABOVE.

We our in a deep tropical air mass from the Gulf of Mexico and the pattern will be slow to change the next 5 days.

Rather limited sunshine until late next week, next weekend looks drier and warmer than this weekend.

I discussed in my last blog back on Wednesday how experience has taught me computer models usually exaggerate the rain chance and rain amounts in a tropical air mass because they turn all moisture into rain instead of using it to generate a lot of cloud cover and just some rain.

So I told you there should be more clouds than rain Thursday and Friday, with luck that will be the case on the weekend as well. I’ll update as needed.

I also pointed out how heavy thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast often siphon off rain that would otherwise fall on Atlanta and the mountains. We’ve been seeing that so far as well.

So for the next 5 days the chance of rain IS above-normal for this time of year and there is a risk of a shower or thundershower at anytime of the day or night but there should be some breaks in the rain as well and the sun could peak out.

We have uniformly saturated air with a slow moving broad low pressure and frontal system surface and aloft next 5 days with random chaotic impulses of energy in the jet stream flow.

Unfortunately there is no way to forecast rain start/stop times in this type pattern but no constant all day rain is anticipated as of now.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FRIDAY:

72-HOUR ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS:

In this kind of chaotic weather pattern which lacks a single clear frontal passage to focus on, the rain and thunderstorm forecast often has to be updated every 4-8 hours so stay tuned.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.